2015年汇率改革以来中国的“真实”汇率制度

Jinzhao Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2005年,中国逐步摆脱了固定汇率制,扩大了人民币的波动范围,并对人民币汇率中间价进行了各种改革,以建立一个更加灵活的汇率制度。本文研究了自2015年8月汇率制度改革以来中国汇率制度的性质。基于自兴奋阈值自回归(SETAR)模型,它内生地确定了中国人民银行(中国央行)开始干预外汇市场以限制进一步波动的不作为区间。基于估计阈值与官方区间的比较,本文表明,人民币兑美元汇率遵循类似爬行区间的中间机制,但只有一个单一的干预阈值,远低于公布区间的上限。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The “real” exchange rate regime in China since 2015′s exchange rate reform

Moving away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005, China has gradually enlarged the band of fluctuations of Renminbi (RMB) and implemented various reforms on its central parity to have a more flexible exchange rate regime. This paper studies the nature of the exchange rate regime in China since the exchange regime reform of August 2015. Relying on the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model, it identifies endogenously the band of inaction beyond which the People's bank of China (China's central bank) starts to intervene in the foreign exchange market to restrict further fluctuations. Based on the comparison of the estimated threshold with the official band, this paper shows that the RMB/USD exchange rate followed an intermediate regime similar to the crawling band but with only one single threshold of intervention which is much lower than the upper boundary of the announced band.

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