Guillaume Cantin , Benoît Delahaye , Beatriz M. Funatsu
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On the degradation of forest ecosystems by extreme events: Statistical Model Checking of a hybrid model
In this paper, we study the vulnerability of forest ecosystems perturbed by extreme events, such as those arising from climate change. To investigate the complex interactions between the biological dynamics of the forest and the climatic activity, we construct an original hybrid model, obtained by coupling a continuous reaction–diffusion system, which describes the spatio-temporal dynamics of the forest ecosystem, with a discrete probabilistic process, which models the possible occurrences of extreme events. Properties of ecological interest are considered: invariance of the persistence equilibrium, attraction to the extinction equilibrium and emergence of degraded states. Those properties of the hybrid model are verified through an extension of the Statistical Model Checking framework. We establish the existence of a threshold above which the persistence equilibrium of the forest ecosystem is compromised and give a numerical assessment of this threshold in terms of the probability and intensity of extreme events. We also present non-trivial parameter conditions for which the forest ecosystem converges to a degraded savanna-like state.
期刊介绍:
Ecological Complexity is an international journal devoted to the publication of high quality, peer-reviewed articles on all aspects of biocomplexity in the environment, theoretical ecology, and special issues on topics of current interest. The scope of the journal is wide and interdisciplinary with an integrated and quantitative approach. The journal particularly encourages submission of papers that integrate natural and social processes at appropriately broad spatio-temporal scales.
Ecological Complexity will publish research into the following areas:
• All aspects of biocomplexity in the environment and theoretical ecology
• Ecosystems and biospheres as complex adaptive systems
• Self-organization of spatially extended ecosystems
• Emergent properties and structures of complex ecosystems
• Ecological pattern formation in space and time
• The role of biophysical constraints and evolutionary attractors on species assemblages
• Ecological scaling (scale invariance, scale covariance and across scale dynamics), allometry, and hierarchy theory
• Ecological topology and networks
• Studies towards an ecology of complex systems
• Complex systems approaches for the study of dynamic human-environment interactions
• Using knowledge of nonlinear phenomena to better guide policy development for adaptation strategies and mitigation to environmental change
• New tools and methods for studying ecological complexity