考虑印度和巴基斯坦的和平

Q3 Social Sciences
Orbis Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.orbis.2023.06.006
Farhan Hanif Siddiqi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

印巴关系正处于一个转折点,印度戏剧性地撤销了克什米尔的自治权,并希望将克什米尔冲突的性质从“双边”(涉及巴基斯坦)转变为“单方面”(不包括巴基斯坦)。另一方面,巴基斯坦已经开始了外交攻势,认为针对印度在克什米尔的多数派政治不仅对克什米尔人不利,而且对两个对手之间的战略稳定也不利。这篇文章认为,印度和巴基斯坦占主导地位的零和战略——以确保对方获胜为前提——最不可能实现。鉴于目前关系的性质,未来的道路是两国在一个最低限度的框架中进行接触,在这个框架中,相互利益而不是主导地位被作为接触的基础。第二,中短期目标应该是参与,而不是达成协议。最后,在此期间,任何关于冻结克什米尔冲突的言论都不太可能为这两个地区对手之间的和平与稳定带来任何长期红利。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Contemplating Peace between India and Pakistan

India-Pakistan relations are at an inflection point with India’s dramatic revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy and its desired objective to transform the nature of the Kashmir conflict from a “bilateral” (involving Pakistan) to a “unilateral” status (excluding Pakistan). Pakistan, on the other hand, has embarked on a diplomatic offensive making the case against India’s majoritarian politics in Kashmir as detrimental not only to the Kashmiris but also to the strategic stability between the two rivals. This article reasons that India’s and Pakistan’s dominant zero-sum strategies—premised on winning while ensuring the other’s loss—are least likely to come to fruition. Given the present nature of ties, the way forward is for the two states to engage in a minimalist framework where mutual interests, as opposed to dominant positions, are put forth as a basis for engagement. Second, engagement more than agreement should be the short- to medium-term goal. Finally, any talk during this time on freezing the Kashmir conflict is least likely to bring any long-term dividends for peace and stability between the two regional adversaries.

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来源期刊
Orbis
Orbis SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
1.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
37 days
期刊介绍: Orbis, the Foreign Policy Research Institute quarterly journal of world affairs, was founded in 1957 as a forum for policymakers, scholars, and the informed public who sought an engaging, thought-provoking debate beyond the predictable, conventional journals of that time. Nearly half a century later, Orbis continues to offer informative, insightful, and lively discourse on the full range of topics relating to American foreign policy and national security, as well as in-depth analysis on important international developments. Orbis readers always know the stories behind the headlines.
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