Flattening the curve? The structure of the natural resource exchange network and CO2 emissions

In this article, we advance literature on the political economy of climate change. First, we build upon ecologically unequal exchange perspectives to argue that the structure of the international natural resource exchange network moderates the impact of economic development on CO₂ emissions by inculcating resource dependency among less central countries. Thus, less central countries experience higher environmental costs to development than more central countries. Second, we conduct a network analysis of international trade in natural resources. This allows us to both describe the exchange relations that exist in this network and identify the unique structural locations that countries occupy within it. Our network analysis is unique in that it isolates the exchange of natural resources from an all-encompassing “world-system.” Third, we assess the degree to which development has more deleterious effects on the environment among less central countries in this network using three operationalizations of CO₂ emissions and allowing for both linear and non-linear associations between development and CO₂ emissions. Fourth, we assess the degree to which resource dependency operates as a causal mechanism linking resource structure to higher environmental costs of development. The results of panel regression models suggest that the environmental costs to development are higher in less central countries across all three outcomes and specifications of the development-CO₂ association, and that resource dependency plays a significant but partial role in this process. We conclude by implicating these findings in ongoing debates about the political economy of climate change and suggesting avenues for future research.