National ecological conservation versus local development: The triggering effects of forest transition on urban shrinkage

Forest transition and urban shrinkage have received increased attention in national ecological conservation (NEC) and local development (LD) with the urgent to attain sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, few studies have concerned with the impacts of forest transition on urban shrinkage, which limits an in-depth understanding of the relationship between NEC and LD. The study aims to bridge this gap based on an analysis framework of the relationship between forest transition and urban shrinkage. We used Yichun City, one of the representative forest-based cities in China, as a case study to quantitatively analyze the impacts of forest transition on urban shrinkage by conducting the baseline regression and the threshold regression models from 1973 to 2018. The results show that forest transition exerts triggering effects on urban shrinkage via combination of socioeconomic dynamics and NEC policy. The underlying mechanisms of the effects are concluded as a causal chain with the triggering factor of industrial diversity: ‘NEC policy – forest transition – socioeconomic dynamics – urban shrinkage’. This study provides significant insight into the trade-off between NEC and LD in that the national policy for promoting natural ecosystem recovery may sacrifice local development, which challenges sustainable development both at the national and local levels. For this reason, policy implications have been proposed to achieve the win-win options of NEC and LD, including differentiated policies on forest management and industrial structure upgrading strategies based on industry diversification.