Oliver Rodríguez-Aguilar , José López-Collado , Alejandra Soto-Estrada , Mónica de la Cruz Vargas-Mendoza , Clemente de Jesús García-Avila
{"title":"气候变化模式下墨西哥柑橘的未来空间分布","authors":"Oliver Rodríguez-Aguilar , José López-Collado , Alejandra Soto-Estrada , Mónica de la Cruz Vargas-Mendoza , Clemente de Jesús García-Avila","doi":"10.1016/j.ecocom.2023.101041","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change may modify environmental conditions creating suitable environments for phytopathogen vectors in places that were not suitable before. The present study aimed to contrast current and future spatial distribution of <em>Diaphorina citri</em> in Mexico under two climate change scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 4.5 and 8.5 for years 2050 and 2070. Non-correlated bioclimatic variables from eight General Circulation Models derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 and presence point data were used to generate distribution models with MaxEnt. Future projections showed that current suitable areas, equivalent to a 38.6% of coverage persist across all scenarios, new suitability areas appear, and no reduction is expected. All the models coincide on a potential increase in relation to the current national distribution of 11.1, 14.8, 13.8 and 25.5% for SSP2 4.5–50 SSP2 4.5–70 SSP5 8.5–50, and SSP5 8.5–70 respectively. Most of the new areas are not currently dedicated to citriculture; however, an increase in the risk of Huanglongbing is expected because most of the new areas are contiguous to the current presence areas, and cover urban zones where there may exist rutaceous hosts, from which the vector may spread the disease to the production zones.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50559,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Complexity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Future spatial distribution of Diaphorina citri in Mexico under climate change models\",\"authors\":\"Oliver Rodríguez-Aguilar , José López-Collado , Alejandra Soto-Estrada , Mónica de la Cruz Vargas-Mendoza , Clemente de Jesús García-Avila\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ecocom.2023.101041\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Climate change may modify environmental conditions creating suitable environments for phytopathogen vectors in places that were not suitable before. The present study aimed to contrast current and future spatial distribution of <em>Diaphorina citri</em> in Mexico under two climate change scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 4.5 and 8.5 for years 2050 and 2070. Non-correlated bioclimatic variables from eight General Circulation Models derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 and presence point data were used to generate distribution models with MaxEnt. Future projections showed that current suitable areas, equivalent to a 38.6% of coverage persist across all scenarios, new suitability areas appear, and no reduction is expected. All the models coincide on a potential increase in relation to the current national distribution of 11.1, 14.8, 13.8 and 25.5% for SSP2 4.5–50 SSP2 4.5–70 SSP5 8.5–50, and SSP5 8.5–70 respectively. Most of the new areas are not currently dedicated to citriculture; however, an increase in the risk of Huanglongbing is expected because most of the new areas are contiguous to the current presence areas, and cover urban zones where there may exist rutaceous hosts, from which the vector may spread the disease to the production zones.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50559,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ecological Complexity\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-03-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ecological Complexity\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1476945X23000132\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecological Complexity","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1476945X23000132","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Future spatial distribution of Diaphorina citri in Mexico under climate change models
Climate change may modify environmental conditions creating suitable environments for phytopathogen vectors in places that were not suitable before. The present study aimed to contrast current and future spatial distribution of Diaphorina citri in Mexico under two climate change scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 4.5 and 8.5 for years 2050 and 2070. Non-correlated bioclimatic variables from eight General Circulation Models derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 and presence point data were used to generate distribution models with MaxEnt. Future projections showed that current suitable areas, equivalent to a 38.6% of coverage persist across all scenarios, new suitability areas appear, and no reduction is expected. All the models coincide on a potential increase in relation to the current national distribution of 11.1, 14.8, 13.8 and 25.5% for SSP2 4.5–50 SSP2 4.5–70 SSP5 8.5–50, and SSP5 8.5–70 respectively. Most of the new areas are not currently dedicated to citriculture; however, an increase in the risk of Huanglongbing is expected because most of the new areas are contiguous to the current presence areas, and cover urban zones where there may exist rutaceous hosts, from which the vector may spread the disease to the production zones.
期刊介绍:
Ecological Complexity is an international journal devoted to the publication of high quality, peer-reviewed articles on all aspects of biocomplexity in the environment, theoretical ecology, and special issues on topics of current interest. The scope of the journal is wide and interdisciplinary with an integrated and quantitative approach. The journal particularly encourages submission of papers that integrate natural and social processes at appropriately broad spatio-temporal scales.
Ecological Complexity will publish research into the following areas:
• All aspects of biocomplexity in the environment and theoretical ecology
• Ecosystems and biospheres as complex adaptive systems
• Self-organization of spatially extended ecosystems
• Emergent properties and structures of complex ecosystems
• Ecological pattern formation in space and time
• The role of biophysical constraints and evolutionary attractors on species assemblages
• Ecological scaling (scale invariance, scale covariance and across scale dynamics), allometry, and hierarchy theory
• Ecological topology and networks
• Studies towards an ecology of complex systems
• Complex systems approaches for the study of dynamic human-environment interactions
• Using knowledge of nonlinear phenomena to better guide policy development for adaptation strategies and mitigation to environmental change
• New tools and methods for studying ecological complexity