Familial Risk and Interaction With Smoking and Alcohol Consumption in Bladder Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Background: Although genetic factors are known to play a role in the pathogenesis of bladder cancer, population-level familial risk estimates are scarce. We aimed to quantify the familial risk of bladder cancer and analyze interactions between family history and smoking or alcohol consumption.

Methods: Using the National Health Insurance database, we constructed a cohort of 5,524,403 study subjects with first-degree relatives (FDRs) and their lifestyle risk factors from 2002 to 2019. Familial risk was calculated using hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) that compare the risk of individuals with and without affected FDRs. Interactions between family history and smoking or alcohol intake were assessed on an additive scale using the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI).

Results: Offspring with an affected parent had a 2.09-fold (95% CI: 1.41 - 3.08) increased risk of disease compared to those with unaffected parents. Familial risks of those with affected father and mother were 2.26 (95% CI: 1.51 - 3.39) and 1.10 (95% CI: 0.27 - 4.41), respectively. When adjusted for lifestyle factors, HR reduced slightly to 2.04 (95% CI: 1.38 - 3.01), suggesting that a genetic predisposition is the main driver in the familial aggregation. Smokers with a positive family history had a markedly increased risk of disease (HR: 3.60, 95% CI: 2.27 - 5.71), which exceeded the sum of their individual risks, with statistically significant interaction (RERI: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.31 - 1.13). For alcohol consumption, drinkers with a positive family history also had an increased risk of disease, although the interaction was not statistically significant (RERI: 0.05, 95% CI: -3.39 - 3.48).

Conclusion: Smokers and alcohol consumers with a positive family history of bladder cancer should be considered a high-risk group and be advised to undergo genetic counseling.