Geopolitical “Entanglements” and the China-India-Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma

ABSTRACT The geopolitical situation in South Asia is witnessing entangled trends, which are reflected as chronic India-Pakistan confrontation, the frigid China-India relationship and the increasing US-China competition. China doesn’t want to be involved in the India-Pakistan confrontation, but it’s an undeniable fact that the China factor is shaping India-Pakistan interaction to some extent. Though the United States is an extra-regional power, it has a long history of being involved in regional affairs. Considering China, India and Pakistan all possess nuclear weapons, it’s extremely important to analyze the geopolitical trends and implications for the nuclear chain. This paper argues that the United States has been focusing on strategic competition against China, and the bilateral relationship will face fierce challenges before reaching new balance. The China-India relationship is becoming competitive and volatile, and the old framework of stabilizing bilateral relations is disintegrating. The conflicting ideology of nation-building, the extremely contradicted security perception, and the battle for geostrategic advantage in the region all contribute to India-Pakistan confrontation. Though nuclear weapons, functioning as a strategic deterrence tool, will curtail concerning parties from large-scale war, and China strongly advocates for a common and cooperative security concept, the geopolitical entanglement will have serious impact on the regional nuclear situation. This paper also gives recommendations for managing this interaction. All concerned parties should strive to overcome the security dilemma and maintain peace and stability in this region by strengthening confidence-building measures, conducting nuclear issue dialogues and improving crisis management mechanisms.