保护能源基础设施免受未来气候变化的不确定性影响:一种实物期权方法

T. Prime, Karyn Morrissey, Jennifer Brown, A. Plater
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引用次数: 5

摘要

气候变化的沿海影响,包括风暴和海平面上升造成的洪水和侵蚀,以及可能的适应对策,已经使用非常不同的方法进行了研究;从非常详细的针对具体地点、基于过程的调查和干预到对沿海地区脆弱性的全球宏观经济评估。本文提出了一种防洪实物期权分析方法,该方法在大区域的局部空间尺度上评估在电力基础设施周围的防洪建设和维护中做出的潜在投资决策。实物期权分析包括未来气候条件的不确定性和投资项目管理的灵活性,以产生比单独使用传统贴现现金流分析更精确的最优结果。该方法使用洪水淹没模型的高级分析来评估能源基础设施在目前的洪水成本,直到2100年英国可能出现的最高海平面上升,即预计海平面上升1.8米的H++情景。这些成本被纳入实物期权估价模型,该模型能够确定哪些能源基础设施将从投资中受益,以及何时。这项英国西北部的研究确定了两个基础设施站点,如今,这两个站点将受益于防洪投资,而不是贴现现金流分析,到2050年将增加到另外14个。使用这种方法,已经确定了46个可以从推迟防洪投资中受益的地点,到2050年将减少到35个。这种项目评估方法可以应用于洪泛平原内的任何特征,例如基础设施或住宅,使其成为识别需要投资的脆弱特征的一种适应性强且有用的工具,以确保其在未来保持对极端洪水事件的抵御能力。这项工作是水动力学建模、洪水风险评估和经济学之间跨学科合作的结果。其输出非常适合输入决策支持工具,使利益相关者能够询问和传播他们感兴趣的空间位置信息。这篇综述发表在《海洋与海岸经济学杂志》上:https://cbe.miis.edu/joce/vol5/iss1/3
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Protecting Energy Infrastructure against the Uncertainty of Future Climate Change: A Real Options Approach
The coastal impacts of climate change, including flooding and erosion due to storms and sea-level rise, and the possible adaptation responses have been studied using very different approaches; from very detailed sitespecific, process-based investigations and interventions to global macroeconomic assessments of coastal zone vulnerability. This paper presents a flood defense real option analysis methodology that values potential investment decisions made in the building and maintaining of flood defenses around electricity infrastructure at local spatial scales for a large region. Real option analysis embraces uncertainty in future climate conditions and flexibility in the management of investment projects to produce a more precise optimal outcome than attained with traditional discount cash flow analysis alone. The method uses high-level analysis from flood inundation models to assess the cost of flooding for energy infrastructure at the present-day up to the highest plausible sea-level rise for the UK in 2100 known as the H++ scenario, which projects a sea-level rise of 1.8 m. These costs feed into a real option valuation model able to identify which energy infrastructure will benefit from investment, and when. This northwest UK study identifies two infrastructure sites that, today, would benefit from flood defence investment over discount cash flow analysis, increasing to an additional 14 in 2050. Using this method has identified 46 sites that would benefit from deferring flood defence investment now, reducing to 35 sites in 2050. This method of project valuation can be applied to any feature within the floodplain, e.g. infrastructure or residential housing, making it an adaptable and useful tool in identifying vulnerable features that require investment to ensure they stay resilient to extreme flood events in the future. This work is the result of an inter-disciplinary collaboration between hydrodynamic modelling, flood risk assessment and economics. The outputs of which are ideal to be fed into a decision-support tool, allowing stakeholders to interrogate and disseminate information about the spatial locations they are interested in. This review is available in Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics: https://cbe.miis.edu/joce/vol5/iss1/3
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来源期刊
Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics
Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
14
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