Export Controls on COVID-19 Vaccines: Has the EU Opened Pandora’s Box?

On 30 January 2021 an export authorization regime for COVID-19 vaccines came into effect for shipments from the European Union. While some contend covert export curbs on COVID- 19 vaccines predated this move, the EU’s export authorization regime – which includes provision to prohibit export of vaccine – was the first overt control regime introduced on such vaccines since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. To some observers this step by the European Union confirmed fears that Vaccine Nationalism would disrupt the equitable and efficient distribution of vaccines necessary. While such legitimate global public health concerns provide important context, the purpose of this article is to examine in detail the contents of the European Commission’s implementing regulation for this export authorization regime. Seven grounds are found for concern by the European Union’s trading partners. Having established such cause for concern, the article then lays out five ways in which those trading partners might react, bearing in mind that different trading partners face different circumstances and may respond in different ways. The potential for direct retaliation within the COVID-19 vaccine supply chain is explored as well as cross-retaliation for trade in essential goods and against the affiliates of European Union affiliates located abroad. COVID-19, Coronavirus, pandemic, vaccines, vaccine nationalism, European Union, export control, public health, supply chain, retaliation