Climate Change Impact on Potential Distribution of an Endemic Species Abies marocana Trabut

Abstract Global warming is becoming a major concern affecting many components of the biodiversity at a global scale and disproportionately affecting the integrity of ecosystems, particularly the habitat of endemic species. Understanding its impacts on most vulnerable species is essential to improve knowledge on the ecology of these species and for their long-term management and conservation. Abies marocana Trabut (Moroccan fir), a remarkable forest tree of the Mediterranean basin, is an endangered species that is present in discreet small areas of the Rif Mountains, which is highly vulnerable to the ongoing climate warming and facing severe anthropogenic pressures. For conservation and management purposes, our work focused on improving understanding of the impacts of future climate change on the distribution of this species through its habitat suitability modeling. The maximum entropy approach was used, which achieved good predictive abilities. Habitat suitability was identified and then predicted under current and future climate conditions. A significant change and a gradual regression of the habitat suitability to A. marocana was shown under different future climate scenarios. The magnitude of the simulated changes is important and tends to have negative consequences for Moroccan fir conservation. For this purpose, outputs from models are useful to improve our knowledge about the ecology of A. marocana, and predictive maps produced under current and future climate conditions constitute reflection tools available to scientists and managers to better integrate actual and future climate impacts into existing and upcoming management strategies to prevent any future locale extinction.