美国军事部署与政变风险*

IF 1.7 2区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Foreign Policy Analysis Pub Date : 2022-10-21 DOI:10.1093/fpa/orac027

M. Allen, Thomas Campbell, Nicolas Hernandez, Valeryn Shepherd

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引用次数: 2

摘要

二战后美国外交政策的基础是部署和维护庞大的海外军事部署网络。虽然这些部署的外部安全影响更为人所知，但学者们几乎没有花时间将部署与政变的内部稳定威胁联系起来。海外服役人员的部署为降低政变企图的可能性创造了多种途径，既支持政府及其安全机构，又降低政变阴谋者成功企图的好处。我们对1951年至2019年政变的分析表明，美军的存在降低了政变的可能性。

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US Military Deployments and the Risk of Coup d’État*

The foundation of post–WWII US foreign policy is the deployment and maintenance of a vast network of overseas military deployments. While the external security implications of these deployments are better known, scholars have spent little time connecting deployments to the internal stability threat of a coup d’état. The deployment of service members overseas creates multiple pathways to decreasing the likelihood of coup attempts by both supporting the government and its security apparatus and decreasing the benefits of a successful attempt by coup d’état conspirators. Our analysis of coups from 1951 to 2019 demonstrates that the presence of US troops decreases the likelihood of a coup.

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来源期刊

Foreign Policy Analysis INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

9.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Reflecting the diverse, comparative and multidisciplinary nature of the field, Foreign Policy Analysis provides an open forum for research publication that enhances the communication of concepts and ideas across theoretical, methodological, geographical and disciplinary boundaries. By emphasizing accessibility of content for scholars of all perspectives and approaches in the editorial and review process, Foreign Policy Analysis serves as a source for efforts at theoretical and methodological integration and deepening the conceptual debates throughout this rich and complex academic research tradition. Foreign policy analysis, as a field of study, is characterized by its actor-specific focus. The underlying, often implicit argument is that the source of international politics and change in international politics is human beings, acting individually or in groups. In the simplest terms, foreign policy analysis is the study of the process, effects, causes or outputs of foreign policy decision-making in either a comparative or case-specific manner.