高环境温度与住院风险之间的关系:越南八个生态区的时间序列研究

Nu Quy Linh Tran, Hieu K T Ngo, N. T. Tuong Vy, T. Dang, S. Nghiem, Huu Quyen Nguyen, D. Phung
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摘要

越南是受气候变化和极端天气事件威胁最大、最易受其影响的国家之一。然而,在全国范围内对温度-发病率关系的研究很少。这项研究旨在评估高温对越南八个生态地区各种原因住院风险和热敏疾病的影响。该研究利用了一个纵向数据集,其中包括来自越南八个地区的八个省的住院和气象数据。使用具有拟泊松族的广义线性和分布滞后模型进行时间序列分析,以检验各省的温度住院关联。随机效应荟萃分析用于计算全国范围内的风险汇总估计。国家一级的综合效应(%,[95%CI])表明,在0–3d滞后时,高于阈值温度(19°C)1°C会使各种原因和传染病的住院风险分别增加0.8%[0.4%-1.2%]和2.4%[0.02%-1.03%]。高温对呼吸系统疾病和精神健康障碍的影响并不显著。在地区层面上,八个地区的关联各不相同,其中北部地区的风险往往高于南部地区。这是为数不多的评估越南八个生态区高温相关住院风险的全国性研究之一。这些发现将有助于制定基于证据的热健康行动计划。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The association between high ambient temperature and risk of hospitalization: a time-series study in eight ecological regions in Vietnam
Viet Nam is among the countries most threatened by and vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events. However, research on the temperature-morbidity relationship at the national scale has been scarce. This study aimed to assess the impact of high temperatures on the risk of hospital admissions for all causes and heat-sensitive diseases across eight ecological regions in Vietnam. The study utilized a longitudinal dataset that included hospitalization and meteorological data from eight provinces representing eight regions in Vietnam. A time series analysis was applied using the generalized linear and distributed lag models with a quasi-Poisson family to examine the temperature-hospitalization association in each province. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to calculate the pooled estimate of risk for the national scale. The country-level pooled effects (%, [95% CI]) indicated that a 1 °C increase above the threshold temperature (19 °C) increased the hospitalization risk for all causes and infectious diseases by 0.8% [0.4%–1.2%] and 2.4% [1.02%–1.03%], respectively at lag 0–3 d. The effects of heat on respiratory diseases and mental health disorders were not significant. At the regional level, the association varied across eight regions, of which the Northern parts tended to have a higher risk than the Southern. This is among very few national-scale studies assessing hospitalization risk associated with high temperatures across eight ecological regions of Vietnam. These findings would be useful for developing evidence-based heat-health action plans.
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