民调有多好？1993年至2019年澳大利亚大选预测

IF 1.2 3区社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Australian Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI:10.1080/10361146.2020.1825616

M. Goot

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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要：没有一项民意调查预测2019年澳大利亚大选的获胜者，这是自1993年以来的首次失败。1993年，所有民意调查都开始报告两党对选票份额的首选（2PP）估计以及两党的首选。但认为民调在2019年之前一直表现良好的想法是误导性的：从1993年到2016年，五分之一的人预测了错误的获胜者。本文从以下几个方面考察了民意调查的表现：结果；误差幅度；误差的大小；以及对自由国家党（LNP）和工党之间差距的估计。研究表明，对2PP选票、工党的第一偏好和LNP的第一偏好的估计中，约有三分之一的误差大于抽样误差。

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How good are the polls? Australian election predictions, 1993–2019

ABSTRACT None of the polls predicted the winner of the 2019 Australian election, the first such failure since 1993 when all the polls started reporting a two-party preferred (2PP) vote estimate of the vote share as well as the parties’ first preferences. But the idea that the polls had enjoyed a very good run until 2019 is misleading: from 1993 to 2016, a fifth had predicted the wrong winner. This paper examines the performance of the polls against several measures: the outcome; margins of error; size of the errors; and estimates of the gap between the Liberal-National Party (LNP) and Labor. It shows that about a third of the estimates of the 2PP vote, Labor’s first preferences, and the LNP’s first preferences, involved errors greater than those attributable to sampling error.

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来源期刊

Australian Journal of Political Science POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Australian Journal of Political Science is the official journal of the Australian Political Studies Association. The editorial team of the Journal includes a range of Australian and overseas specialists covering the major subdisciplines of political science. We publish articles of high quality at the cutting edge of the discipline, characterised by conceptual clarity, methodological rigour, substantive interest, theoretical coherence, broad appeal, originality and insight.