Did we get civic activism wrong? Understanding the waltz between constructive and aggressive civic tendencies in Bosnia–Herzegovina

Purpose Despite the end of conflict in 1995, Bosnia–Herzegovina still suffers from unresolved ethnic and social tensions, where fostering social cohesion, active citizenship and mitigating ethnonationalist tensions and politically motivated violence remains among the main goals to achieve transformative peace. This paper, based on quantitative analyses of 3,637 adult respondents, shows that the tendency of Bosnians to be active or violent citizens sometimes overlaps and are not very distinct patterns of behaviour. The purpose of this paper is to identify factors that differentiate pathways and help explain (un)civil civic behaviours and inform the work of peace and development actors. Design/methodology/approach The paper is based on a quantitative household survey conducted with a representative sample of 3,637 adults in Bosnia and by using a wide range of statistical tools from scaling to correlation analysis. This data set measures factors and conceptual notions associated with passive, constructive and aggressive civic tendencies and social cohesion in a nuanced way by using different metrics and scales. The survey was designed and conducted by The Centre for Sustainable Peace and Democratic Development (SeeD) and the Bosnia–Herzegovina Resilience Initiative in 2020, in partnership with The United States Agency for International Development (USAID)/The Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI) and The International Organization for Migration (IOM) for the SCORE Bosnia–Herzegovina study (SeeD, 2020). Findings Overall, the factors that were discovered to be linked to the manifestation of constructive and aggressive civic tendencies are multidimensional, and range from intergroup relations (e.g. tension, tolerance) to political and civic attitudes (e.g. ethnonationalism, civic responsibility, gender equality), from individual traits (e.g. education, economic stress) to the media landscape (e.g. information consumption). While the empirical evidence shows that some of these factors can push citizens towards both active and violent civic behaviours simultaneously, this study identifies and distinguishes those that can reduce aggressive civic tendencies while increasing constructive civic tendencies. Practical implications This paper proposes a replicable approach and evidence-based conclusions which can help validate the theories of change for the peace and development actors to ensure that scarce peacebuilding resources are invested where the impact is greatest, and the actors can protect the sanctity of their responsibility to do no harm. Social implications This paper seeks to provide a robust empirical understanding for more effective policy-making and programming that can support Bosnia–Herzegovina’s endogenous resilience against socio-political shocks and transformative peace trajectory. This paper seeks to demonstrate how peace and development actors can build and use an evidence-base for understanding civic behaviours and as a result formulate tailored efforts with greater likelihood of impact. This would help fulfil commitments towards sustainable development goals and the 2030 global agenda (UN General Assembly, 2015). Originality/value This study contributes insights to the emerging literature at the nexus of peacebuilding, individual skills/attitudes and civic behaviour. While the conclusions are highly contextual, the methodology is informed by multidisciplinary literature and is replicable in other post-conflict and non-conflict contexts, and thus can be used for cross-country comparisons and theory building around civic activism and constructive citizenship. The approach distinguishes between passive citizens, constructive activists, aggressive activists and purely violent citizens. This study discovers that the bifurcation is between passive citizens and active citizens, and although constructive and aggressive civic tendencies might be theorised to be contradictory, they overlap and tend to co-occur.