经济危机后的债务增长联系：以中欧和东南欧为例

IF 2.2 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Post-Communist Economies Pub Date : 2022-01-24 DOI:10.1080/14631377.2021.2006492

Kiril Simeonovski, Filip Fidanoski, Mihail Petkovski, B. Sergi

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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要本文以中欧和东南欧16个国家为样本，研究了2009-2018年期间政府债务对经济增长的影响。我们开发了一个非线性动态面板回归模型。研究结果表明，增长函数与政府债务之间存在凹性。基线模型的估计值将债务阈值确定为GDP的77.3%，而当主要预算余额和总体预算余额作为协变量时，债务阈值的范围为GDP的69.4%至74.1%。当没有协变量时，我们为处理潜在内生性而做出的GMM估计将债务阈值确定为GDP的78.9%，而当固定资本形成和就业总额作为协变量相加时，债务阈值的范围为GDP的75.8%至80.7%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Debt-growth link after an economic crisis: The case of Central and Southeast Europe

ABSTRACT This paper examines government debt’s effect on economic growth on a sample of 16 countries from Central and Southeast Europe for the period 2009–2018 period. We develop a non-linear dynamic panel-regression model. The findings point out to concavity of the growth function with respect to government debt. The estimates from the baseline model determine the debt threshold at the level of 77.3% of GDP, while the debt threshold ranges from 69.4 to 74.1% of GDP when the primary and overall budget balances are included as covariates. The GMM estimates that we make to deal with potential endogeneity determine the debt threshold at the level of 78.9% of GDP when there are no covariates, while the debt threshold ranges from 75.8 to 80.7% of GDP when the gross fixed capital formation and employment are added as covariates.

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来源期刊

Post-Communist Economies ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

18.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： Post-Communist Economies publishes key research and policy articles in the analysis of post-communist economies. The basic transformation in the past two decades through stabilisation, liberalisation and privatisation has been completed in virtually all of the former communist countries, but despite the dramatic changes that have taken place, the post-communist economies still form a clearly identifiable group, distinguished by the impact of the years of communist rule. Post-communist economies still present distinctive problems that make them a particular focus of research.