了解拉沙热的传播途径:数学建模方法

IF 3 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
P. Madueme, F. Chirove
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引用次数: 2

摘要

在过去十年中,拉萨热感染在西非的传播正在增加。在考虑各种可能的传播途径时,可以更好地理解这一影响。我们使用非线性常微分方程系统设计了拉沙热流行病学的数学模型,以确定传播途径对人类和啮齿动物(包括那些通常被忽视的动物)感染进展的影响。我们分析了模型并进行了数值模拟,以确定每条传输路线的影响。我们的研究结果表明,当所有传播途径都被纳入时,拉沙热感染的负担会增加,大多数单一传播途径的危害较小,但当与其他传播途径结合时,它们会增加拉沙热的负担。因此,重要的是要考虑多种传播途径,以更好地最佳估计拉萨热负担,进而确定针对传播途径的控制策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Understanding the transmission pathways of Lassa fever: A mathematical modeling approach
The spread of Lassa fever infection is increasing in West Africa over the last decade. The impact of this can better be understood when considering the various possible transmission routes. We designed a mathematical model for the epidemiology of Lassa Fever using a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations to determine the effect of transmission pathways toward the infection progression in humans and rodents including those usually neglected. We analyzed the model and carried out numerical simulations to determine the impact of each of the transmission routes. Our results showed that the burden of Lassa fever infection is increased when all the transmission routes are incorporated and most single transmission routes are less harmful, but when in combination with other transmission routes, they increase the Lassa fever burden. It is therefore important to consider multiple transmission routes to better estimate the Lassa fever burden optimally and in turn determine control strategies targeted at the transmission pathways.
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CiteScore
18.30
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