偏移和异常值对东地中海安塔利亚2号验潮仪海平面趋势的影响

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Marine Geodesy Pub Date : 2022-03-02 DOI:10.1080/01490419.2022.2047843

M. Ayhan

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引用次数: 1

摘要

摘要安塔利亚2号验潮站位于土耳其东地中海沿岸。相对海平面趋势6.0 ± 1.5和6.44 ± 0.45 1985–2009年安塔利亚2 TG的mm/年与趋势不同（1.6 ± 1.5 1935-1977年期间mm/年）为了调查这种趋势差异，对安塔利亚2 TG的月平均序列进行了偏移、异常值和趋势估计的重新分析。Zivot-Andrews方法和一个偏移中的异常值检验结果（1994.0417） 71.24级 ± 13.48 mm和9个异常值。该序列经过偏移和异常值校正、去季节化和缺失点填充，被确定为趋势平稳过程，并通过各种模型进行趋势估计分析。提供最低Akaike信息标准的最优模型是具有乘法季节自回归移动平均值（ARMA（2,0）x（1,0）12）的多项式线性趋势。最优模型估计的相对海平面趋势为1.77 ± 0.65 mm/年。安塔利亚2 TG的大趋势差异主要由一个偏移量（～71%）和九个异常值（～3%）引起。

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Effects of Offsets and Outliers on the Sea Level Trend at Antalya 2 Tide Gauge within the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Abstract Antalya 2 tide gauge (TG) station is located on the coast of Turkey within the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Relative sea level trends 6.0 ± 1.5 and 6.44 ± 0.45 mm/year over 1985–2009 at Antalya 2 TG are different from the trend (1.6 ± 1.5 mm/year over 1935–1977) at Antalya TG within 10 km. In order to investigate this trend discrepancy, the monthly mean series at Antalya 2 TG is re-analyzed for offsets, outliers and trend estimation. The Zivot-Andrews method and the outlier test result in one offset at 1994.0417 year with magnitude of 71.24 ± 13.48 mm and nine outliers. The series, corrected for the offset and outliers, de-seasonalized and filled for missed points, is identified as trend-stationary process and analyzed for trend estimation by various models. The optimal model providing the lowest Akaike Information Criteria is polynomial linear trend with multiplicative seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA(2,0)x(1,0)12). The estimated relative sea level trend by the optimal model is 1.77 ± 0.65 mm/year. The large trend discrepancy at Antalya 2 TG is accounted for by one offset primarily (∼71%) and nine outliers (∼3%).

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来源期刊

Marine Geodesy 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

6.20%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The aim of Marine Geodesy is to stimulate progress in ocean surveys, mapping, and remote sensing by promoting problem-oriented research in the marine and coastal environment. The journal will consider articles on the following topics: topography and mapping; satellite altimetry; bathymetry; positioning; precise navigation; boundary demarcation and determination; tsunamis; plate/tectonics; geoid determination; hydrographic and oceanographic observations; acoustics and space instrumentation; ground truth; system calibration and validation; geographic information systems.