摩洛哥主要谷物市场的可持续性评估:评估生产和进口

IF 0.9 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Mohamed Belmahi, Mohamed Hanchane, Aziz Mahjoub, Fatima Najjari, Anass Khayati, Ridouane Kessabi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

农业是摩洛哥经济的基本支柱,在2000-2020年期间,农业平均占国内生产总值的12.5%,有助于遏制农村人口外流。谷物作物在国民农业中发挥着重要作用,其中主要谷物,特别是小麦,在农村和城市人口的饮食习惯中占有重要地位,尽管大麦在动物饲料中占主导地位。此外,摩洛哥的粮食安全是以谷类作物为基础的。本研究旨在根据统计方法评估摩洛哥1930年至2020年间作物面积、产量和粮食生产的演变,以及主要谷物的进口情况,以推断谷物部门的粮食安全。所获得的结果表明,在1930-1940年和2010-2020年之间,主要谷物的种植面积几乎翻了一番。软质小麦是一种与硬粒小麦和大麦相比显著增加的谷物。至于谷物产量,由于干旱,其波动性很大,变异系数为46%。有利的农业生态区生产了摩洛哥44%的主要谷物。此外,粮食进口增加了917%,尤其是面包,这是饮食的基本元素,每个摩洛哥人平均每年消耗255公斤小麦,几乎是世界平均水平的四倍。此外,摩洛哥在独立后从自给自足转变为对粮食进口的依赖,进口依赖率达到39.8%,而粮食自给自足率为60.2%。这表明谷物部门的农业政策失败了。此外,在这项研究中,计算了到2030年和2050年的粮食需求量,尤其是小麦。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Sustainability assessment of the main cereals market in Morocco: Evaluating production and import
Agriculture is a fundamental pillar of Morocco's economy, contributing an average of 12,5% of GDP over the period 2000-2020 and helping to fight the rural exodus. Cereal crops play a major role in national agriculture, in which the main cereals, particularly wheat, occupying an important place in the dietary habits of rural and urban populations, although barley has a predominant place in animal feed. Moreover, food security in Morocco is based on cereal crops. This study aims to evaluate the evolution of the area under crop, the yield, and grain production in Morocco between 1930 and 2020, and the imports of main grains, based on the statistical approach in order to deduce the food security in the cereal sector. The results obtained show that the area cultivated to the main cereals has almost doubled between the decade 1930-1940 and the decade 2010-2020. Soft wheat is the type of cereal that has increased significantly compared to durum wheat and barley. As for cereal production, it is subject to strong fluctuations due to the drought, with a coefficient of variation of 46%. The favorable agro-ecological zone produces 44% of the main cereals in Morocco. Moreover, grain imports multiplied by 917%, particularly bread, a basic element of the diet, where each Moroccan consumes an average of 255 kg per year of wheat, almost fourfold the world average. In addition, Morocco moved from self-sufficiency to dependence on food grain imports after independence, where the import dependency ratio (IDR) reached 39,8% compared to 60,2% for food self-sufficiency (SRR). This indicates the failure of the agricultural policy in the cereal sector. Also, in this study, the requirement of food-grain (R) has been calculated in the time horizon to 2030 and 2050, especially for wheat.
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10.00%
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