使用基于代理的模型确定在大流行中实施非药物干预措施以改善病毒控制的有效性

IF 0.4 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED
C. A. Buhat, S. Villanueva
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引用次数: 4

摘要

为了确定非药物干预对流行病的有效性,我们开发了一个基于代理的模型,模拟传染病在小社区的传播及其新出现的现象。我们将初始人群、初始感染者、感染率、康复率、死亡率和无症状率等参数作为输入。我们的模拟表明:(i)随机大规模检测减少了死亡人数、感染人数和持续时间;(ii)以及隔离;(iii)保持社交距离在一定程度上延长了疫情爆发期,有助于拉平疫情曲线;和(iv)减少死亡、感染和持续时间的最有效的NPI组合是不进行大规模检测、不保持社交距离和全面封锁。这项研究的结果可以帮助决策者制定要实施的政策,以获得最佳产出。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Determining the effectiveness of practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions in improving virus control in a pandemic using agent-based modelling
In order to determine the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on an epidemic, we develop an agent-based model that simulates the spread of an infectious disease in a small community and its emerging phenomena. We vary parameters such as initial population, initial infected, infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, and asymptomatic rates, as inputs. Our simulations show that (i) random mass testing decreases the number of deaths, infections and time duration; (ii) as well as quarantines; (iii) social distancing lengthen outbreak period to an extent and helps flatten the epidemic curve; and (iv) the most effective combination of NPIs to minimize death, infection and duration is no mass testing, no social distancing and a total lockdown. Results of this study can aid decision makers in their policies to be implemented to have an optimal output.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
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审稿时长
21 weeks
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