Combining local model calibration with the emergent constraint approach to reduce uncertainty in the tropical land carbon cycle feedback

Abstract. The role of the land carbon cycle in climate change remains highly uncertain. A key source of the projection spread is related to the assumed response of photosynthesis to warming, especially in the tropics. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis determines whether warming positively or negatively impacts photosynthesis, thereby amplifying or suppressing CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis under CO2-induced global warming. Land carbon cycle models have been extensively calibrated against local eddy flux measurements, but this has not previously been clearly translated into a reduced uncertainty in terms of how the tropical land carbon sink will respond to warming. Using a previous parameter perturbation ensemble carried out with version 3 of the Hadley Centre coupled climate–carbon cycle model (HadCM3C), we identify an emergent relationship between the optimal temperature for photosynthesis, which is especially relevant in tropical forests, and the projected amount of atmospheric CO2 at the end of the century. We combine this with a constraint on the optimum temperature for photosynthesis, derived from eddy covariance measurements using the adjoint of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. Taken together, the emergent relationship from the coupled model and the constraint on the optimum temperature for photosynthesis define an emergent constraint on future atmospheric CO2 in the HadCM3C coupled climate–carbon cycle under a common emissions scenario (A1B). The emergent constraint sharpens the probability density of simulated CO2 change (2100–1900) and moves its peak to a lower value of 497 ± 91 compared to 607 ± 128 ppmv (parts per million by volume) when using the equal-weight prior. Although this result is likely to be model and scenario dependent, it demonstrates the potential of combining the large-scale emergent constraint approach with a parameter estimation using detailed local measurements.