Paveethira Suppiah Suppiah, K. W. Tan, K. S. Chin, Yuk Feng Huang
{"title":"使用PRECIS区域气候模型(RCM)评估气候危害:以马来西亚彭亨卡梅伦高地为例","authors":"Paveethira Suppiah Suppiah, K. W. Tan, K. S. Chin, Yuk Feng Huang","doi":"10.47125/jesam/2020_2/06","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study aimed to assess the differences in modelling disaster risks results when using historical precipitation and when using simulated precipitation associated with future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate scenarios. Subsequently, the relationship between climate change and climate hazards was analyzed in this study. The secondary data analyzed included historical precipitation (1983-2017), flood and landslide events records, and Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model (RCM):A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the historical precipitation data with the RCM scenarios, the results showed that the precipitation was correlated with A1B scenario (r= 0.695). The relationship between climate change and hazards was identified to be a positive correlation. The historical daily precipitation (1983-2017) showed a positive correlation with flood and landslide events (r= 0.530, r = 0.797, respectively). As for prediction of climate hazards, the RCM A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios showed correlations with flood event: r= 0.648, 0.384 and 0.417, respectively. Similar results were obtained for landslide and the RCM A1B, A2 and B2 scenario: r = 0.498, 0.751 and 0.654, respectively. Precipitation simulation by PRECIS RCM indicated increased levels of precipitation in the Cameron Highlands for the 2018 - 2069. Commensurate with this, great possibility of increasingly serious consequential hazards such as flood and landslide events are expected.","PeriodicalId":15657,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Science and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessment of Climate Hazards Using PRECIS Regional Climate Model (RCM): A Case Study in Cameron Highlands, Pahang, Malaysia\",\"authors\":\"Paveethira Suppiah Suppiah, K. W. Tan, K. S. Chin, Yuk Feng Huang\",\"doi\":\"10.47125/jesam/2020_2/06\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This study aimed to assess the differences in modelling disaster risks results when using historical precipitation and when using simulated precipitation associated with future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate scenarios. Subsequently, the relationship between climate change and climate hazards was analyzed in this study. The secondary data analyzed included historical precipitation (1983-2017), flood and landslide events records, and Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model (RCM):A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the historical precipitation data with the RCM scenarios, the results showed that the precipitation was correlated with A1B scenario (r= 0.695). The relationship between climate change and hazards was identified to be a positive correlation. The historical daily precipitation (1983-2017) showed a positive correlation with flood and landslide events (r= 0.530, r = 0.797, respectively). As for prediction of climate hazards, the RCM A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios showed correlations with flood event: r= 0.648, 0.384 and 0.417, respectively. Similar results were obtained for landslide and the RCM A1B, A2 and B2 scenario: r = 0.498, 0.751 and 0.654, respectively. Precipitation simulation by PRECIS RCM indicated increased levels of precipitation in the Cameron Highlands for the 2018 - 2069. Commensurate with this, great possibility of increasingly serious consequential hazards such as flood and landslide events are expected.\",\"PeriodicalId\":15657,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Environmental Science and Management\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Environmental Science and Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.47125/jesam/2020_2/06\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Environmental Science and Management","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.47125/jesam/2020_2/06","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Assessment of Climate Hazards Using PRECIS Regional Climate Model (RCM): A Case Study in Cameron Highlands, Pahang, Malaysia
This study aimed to assess the differences in modelling disaster risks results when using historical precipitation and when using simulated precipitation associated with future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate scenarios. Subsequently, the relationship between climate change and climate hazards was analyzed in this study. The secondary data analyzed included historical precipitation (1983-2017), flood and landslide events records, and Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model (RCM):A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the historical precipitation data with the RCM scenarios, the results showed that the precipitation was correlated with A1B scenario (r= 0.695). The relationship between climate change and hazards was identified to be a positive correlation. The historical daily precipitation (1983-2017) showed a positive correlation with flood and landslide events (r= 0.530, r = 0.797, respectively). As for prediction of climate hazards, the RCM A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios showed correlations with flood event: r= 0.648, 0.384 and 0.417, respectively. Similar results were obtained for landslide and the RCM A1B, A2 and B2 scenario: r = 0.498, 0.751 and 0.654, respectively. Precipitation simulation by PRECIS RCM indicated increased levels of precipitation in the Cameron Highlands for the 2018 - 2069. Commensurate with this, great possibility of increasingly serious consequential hazards such as flood and landslide events are expected.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Environmental Science and Management (JESAM) is an international scientific journal produced semi-annually by the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB).
JESAM gives particular premium to manuscript submissions that employ integrated methods resulting to analyses that provide new insights in environmental science, particularly in the areas of:
environmental planning and management;
protected areas development, planning, and management;
community-based resources management;
environmental chemistry and toxicology;
environmental restoration;
social theory and environment; and
environmental security and management.