使用PRECIS区域气候模型（RCM）评估气候危害：以马来西亚彭亨卡梅伦高地为例

IF 0.4 4区环境科学与生态学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Journal of Environmental Science and Management Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI:10.47125/jesam/2020_2/06

Paveethira Suppiah Suppiah, K. W. Tan, K. S. Chin, Yuk Feng Huang

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引用次数: 1

摘要

这项研究旨在评估在使用历史降水量和使用与未来政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）气候情景相关的模拟降水量时，灾害风险结果建模的差异。随后，本研究分析了气候变化与气候危害之间的关系。分析的次要数据包括历史降水量（1983-2017）、洪水和滑坡事件记录，以及为影响研究提供区域气候（PRECS）区域气候模型（RCM）：A1B、A2和B2情景。通过将历史降水量数据与RCM情景进行比较，结果表明，降水量与A1B情景相关（r=0.695）。气候变化与灾害之间存在正相关关系。历史日降水量（1983-2017）与洪水和滑坡事件呈正相关（r分别为0.530和0.797）。在气候灾害预测方面，RCM A1B、A2和B2情景与洪水事件的相关性分别为：r=0.648、0.384和0.417。滑坡和RCM A1B、A2和B2情景也获得了类似的结果：r分别为0.498、0.751和0.654。PRECIS RCM的降水模拟显示，2018-2069年，卡梅伦高地的降水量有所增加。与此相一致的是，预计洪水和滑坡事件等日益严重的后果性灾害的可能性很大。

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Assessment of Climate Hazards Using PRECIS Regional Climate Model (RCM): A Case Study in Cameron Highlands, Pahang, Malaysia

This study aimed to assess the differences in modelling disaster risks results when using historical precipitation and when using simulated precipitation associated with future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate scenarios. Subsequently, the relationship between climate change and climate hazards was analyzed in this study. The secondary data analyzed included historical precipitation (1983-2017), flood and landslide events records, and Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model (RCM):A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the historical precipitation data with the RCM scenarios, the results showed that the precipitation was correlated with A1B scenario (r= 0.695). The relationship between climate change and hazards was identified to be a positive correlation. The historical daily precipitation (1983-2017) showed a positive correlation with flood and landslide events (r= 0.530, r = 0.797, respectively). As for prediction of climate hazards, the RCM A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios showed correlations with flood event: r= 0.648, 0.384 and 0.417, respectively. Similar results were obtained for landslide and the RCM A1B, A2 and B2 scenario: r = 0.498, 0.751 and 0.654, respectively. Precipitation simulation by PRECIS RCM indicated increased levels of precipitation in the Cameron Highlands for the 2018 - 2069. Commensurate with this, great possibility of increasingly serious consequential hazards such as flood and landslide events are expected.

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来源期刊

Journal of Environmental Science and Management ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Environmental Science and Management (JESAM) is an international scientific journal produced semi-annually by the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB). JESAM gives particular premium to manuscript submissions that employ integrated methods resulting to analyses that provide new insights in environmental science, particularly in the areas of: environmental planning and management; protected areas development, planning, and management; community-based resources management; environmental chemistry and toxicology; environmental restoration; social theory and environment; and environmental security and management.