人类世的局限:地缘政治冲突还是合作治理?

IF 2.3 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
J. Scheffran
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在人类世,世界正面临着人类成长的加速及其对自然的影响。自殖民时代以来,欧洲出现的扩张主义世界秩序正在达到多重极限(环境、经济、社会、政治和科学技术),边际成本和风险不断增加,从而引发多重危机、冲突和灾难,挑战这一世界秩序。可供选择的未来从人类文明的崩溃到地缘政治权力竞争和竞争对手之间的冲突,再到破坏性的技术创新和自然边界内经济和社会的系统性变革。为了应对地缘政治冲突及其后果,如气候变化和俄乌战争,合作治理的努力有助于缓解、适应和管理复杂的危机形势。与军备竞赛和战争的划时代转折(Zeitenwende)不同,更有希望的是可持续的气候保护和地球边界内的和平能源转型。为了进一步防止人类世危机动态和地缘政治冲突的升级和相互强化,合作治理需要适应世界的复杂性,从消极的问题关系转变为积极的解决方案关系。针对能源安全关系和气候冲突-移民关系,讨论了地缘政治与治理之间的互动以及从风险级联到协同效应的转变。减少土地竞争和生物多样性丧失,以及对战略原材料和冲突矿产的高风险依赖,可以遏制能源冲突。可持续能源转型的措施包括能源效率和节约、可再生能源和脱碳、循环经济和基于自然的解决方案。为了防止气候冲突与移民之间的风险倍增,气候、移民和安全政策的协同作用有助于在缓解和适应、解决冲突和建设环境的基础上,为社会生态转型提供综合解决方案,旨在相互促进可持续性与和平。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Limits to the Anthropocene: geopolitical conflict or cooperative governance?
In the Anthropocene the world is facing an acceleration of human growth and its impact on nature. The expansionist world order which emerged from Europe since colonial times is reaching multiple limits (environmental, economic, social, political and scientific-technical), increasing marginal costs and risks which trigger multiple crises, conflicts and catastrophes that challenge this world order. Alternative futures range from a collapse of human civilization to geopolitical power competition and conflict between rivals to disruptive technical innovations and systemic transformation of the economy and society within natural boundaries. In response to geopolitical conflicts and their consequences, such as climate change and the Russia-Ukraine war, efforts of cooperative governance can help to mitigate, adapt to and manage complex crisis landscapes. Instead of an epochal turn (Zeitenwende) for arms race and war, more promising are sustainable climate protection and a peaceful energy transition within planetary boundaries. To further prevent escalating and mutually enforcing crisis dynamics and geopolitical conflicts in the Anthropocene, cooperative governance needs to adjust to the world's complexity and move from a negative nexus of problems to a positive nexus of solutions. The interaction between geopolitics and governance and the transition from risk cascades to synergies is discussed for the energy-security nexus and the climate-conflict-migration nexus. Energy conflicts can be contained by diminishing land competition and biodiversity loss, as well as risky dependencies on strategic raw materials and conflict minerals. Measures for a sustainable energy transition include energy efficiency and conservation, renewable energy and decarbonization, a circular economy and nature-based solutions. To prevent risk multiplication in the climate-conflict-migration nexus, synergies in climate, migration and security policy facilitate integrative solutions for a socio-ecological transformation based on mitigation and adaptation, conflict resolution and environmental peacebuilding, aiming for a mutual enforcement of sustainability and peace.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Political Science
Frontiers in Political Science Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
135
审稿时长
13 weeks
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