A MCDM Based on Goal Programming and GIS-Based Risk Assessment for the Evaluation of Educational Locations in Conflict Areas

Abstract Conflict is recognized as a major barrier in socio-economic development. In conflict situations, most sectors such as health, food, shelter and education are adversely affected. The provision of education services to conflict-affected children saves them from becoming a lost generation and contributes to community building. Thus, we conducted this research to investigate the potential of a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) approach and risk assessment based multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) for the allocation of displaced dropped-out children to the most appropriate educational centres, taking into account multiple goals related to cost, distance, risk, etc. A two-stage approach was adopted, utilizing a risk assessment approach, and a location-allocation approach. The risk assessment approach was carried out using GIS and F-AHP (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process) to determine the risk value of each candidate educational centre in the conflict area. In the location-allocation stage, a mathematical model was developed to allocate all demands to the chosen centres. All presented methods were computationally conducted on real case data provided by direct beneficiaries and stakeholders in the 26 sub-districts in the Idleb governorate, Syria. The computational results demonstrate that the proposed approaches ensure practical and theoretical impacts.