撒哈拉以南非洲的任期限制操纵导致的独裁

IF 2.2 2区社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES

Africa Spectrum Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI:10.1177/0002039720964218

A. Cassani

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引用次数: 11

摘要

除了引入多党选举外，20世纪90年代撒哈拉以南地区的民主改革浪潮还包括对行政长官的任期进行限制。行政任期限制（ETL）是民主在一个有着个人统治传统的大陆上发展的关键。然而，对ETL的操纵已经成为一种反复出现的独裁模式，通过这种模式，有抱负的非洲人会削弱行政约束，玷污政治竞争，并限制公民选择执政者的可能性。本文提出了一个通过ETL操纵实现独裁的三阶段模型，并利用新数据，提供了撒哈拉以南非洲第一个基于计量经济学模型的ETL操纵区域比较研究之一。该分析导致重新审视了之前关于ETL操作驱动因素的一些发现，并强调了其他先前被低估的因素的相关性，这些因素可能会阻碍领导者挑战ETL或阻止其成功操作。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Autocratisation by Term Limits Manipulation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Besides the introduction of multi-party elections, the sub-Saharan wave of democratic reforms of the 1990s encompassed the introduction of limits to the number of terms that a chief executive can serve. Executive term limits (ETLs) are key for democracy to advance in a continent with a legacy of personal rule. However, the manipulation of ETLs has become a recurring mode of autocratisation, through which African aspiring over-stayers weaken executive constraints, taint political competition, and limit citizens’ possibility to choose who governs. This article presents a three-phase model of autocratisation by ETL manipulation and, using new data, offers one of the first regional comparative studies of ETL manipulation in sub-Saharan Africa that rests on econometric modelling. The analysis leads to revisiting some previous findings on the drivers of ETL manipulation and highlights the relevance of other previously underestimated factors that may either discourage a leader from challenging ETLs or prevent their successful manipulation.

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来源期刊

Africa Spectrum AREA STUDIES-

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Africa Spectrum is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal published since 1966 by the GIGA Institute of African Affairs (IAA) in Hamburg. It is a multidisciplinary journal dedicated to scientific exchange between the continents. It focuses on socially relevant issues related to political, economic, and sociocultural problems and events in Africa, as well as on Africa''s role within the international system. There are no article processing charges payable to publish in Africa Spectrum. For more than five decades, Africa Spectrum has provided in-depth analyses of current issues in political, social, and economic life; culture; and development in sub-Saharan Africa, including historical studies that illuminate current events on the continent. Africa Spectrum is the leading German academic journal exclusively devoted to this continent and is part of the GIGA Journal Family. The journal accepts Research Articles, Analyses and Reports as well as Book Reviews. It also publishes special issues devoted to particular subjects.