How Should the Risk of Absconding Be Assessed? Existing Approaches within Forensic Mental Health Systems and Examination of a New Scale

Abstract At present, there are few validated tools to assist clinicians in assessing absconding risk and formulating viable risk management plans. In this article, we review existing literature on instrument validity and reliability in relation to absconding among patients in forensic care. We examine the predictive validity of a new risk assessment scale for absconding, the Waypoint Elopement Risk Scale-Historical (WERS-H), and assess its incremental utility against a general violence risk assessment instrument (HCR-20V3). Results from all active inpatients in our service (N = 139) revealed 73 individuals who were responsible for 261 absconding events from 2014 to 2020, representing a similar event frequency from a previous census conducted in 2012, but also reflecting considerable annual fluctuations in rate. Confirming results of earlier studies, the presence of substance use and lengthy durations of forensic supervision emerged as key variables associated with absconding. The WERS-H was found to be a significant predictor of future absconding events (incident rate ratio = 1.21, 95% CI [1.07, 1.38], p = .002) and contributed incrementally over the HCR-20V3 Historical scale, suggesting that the use of an absconding-specific risk tool may yield better predictive accuracy compared to assessment instruments in the domain of general violence or offending.