英国脱欧和美国新政府给中国经济带来的挑战和机遇

IF 1.2 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Emerging Market Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-07 DOI:10.1177/0972652719846304

Lucía Morales, B. Andréosso‐O'callaghan

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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文在香港、台湾和中国大陆三个大中华区的股市反应和经济政策不确定性（EPU）背景下，研究了英国脱欧和唐纳德·特朗普当选美国第45任总统的影响。所选择的研究期为2014年1月至2017年6月，美国和英国的EPU指数被用作衡量世界两个主要经济体的政治不确定性及其对中国股市的影响的指标。本文的主要贡献可以在分析国际背景下与政策相关的不确定性冲击如何推动股市表现方面找到。结果显示，“大中华区”的股市似乎对英国脱欧或唐纳德·特朗普当选产生的不确定性没有反应，这意味着中国股市似乎对最近扰乱全球经济的政治事件有相当的弹性。JEL代码：G58、G15、G18

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Challenges and Opportunities Brought to the Chinese Economy by Brexit and the New US Administration

The impact of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as the 45th US president in the context of stock market reactions and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) within three key zones in ‘the Greater China Region’ (Hong Kong, Taiwan and China Mainland) are examined in this article. The chosen research period is from January 2014 to June 2017, and the EPU Index in the USA and the UK is used as a proxy to measure political uncertainty in two of the world major economies and how they impact on the Chinese stock market. The main contribution of the article can be found in the analysis of how stock market performance can be driven by policy-related uncertainty shocks in the international context. The results show that the stock markets in the ‘Greater China Region’ did not seem to react either to the uncertainty generated by Brexit or to the election of Donald Trump, implying that the Chinese stock markets appear to be quite resilient to the recent political events that have been disrupting the global economy. JEL codes: G58, G15, G18

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来源期刊

Journal of Emerging Market Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

33.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Emerging Market Finance is a forum for debate and discussion on the theory and practice of finance in emerging markets. While the emphasis is on articles that are of practical significance, the journal also covers theoretical and conceptual aspects relating to emerging financial markets. Peer-reviewed, the journal is equally useful to practitioners and to banking and investment companies as to scholars.