Features of the institutional approach to analysis of the pronatalist policy

The paper considers the possibility of applying institutional approach to analysis of the pronatalist policy. The pronatalist policy creates space for institutions that should contribute to achievement of its goals, namely, raising the birth rate. However, the consistent application of the institutional approach has shown the absence of institutions with necessary for these goal parameters such as addressee, regulation, object, conditions and sanctions. Institutional impact should be focused on a target group of people and its characteristics. Depending on the groups' age, it should ensure a new parental status for young people aged 20 to 35 or birth of children in a certain order. Given this evidence for focusing on specific recipients and digitizing this process, an examination of their impact upon the effectiveness of pronatalist policy measures seems warranted. Considering the real, rather than conditional generation, we analyses the dynamics of the number of women and the age-specific fertility rates among women aged 20 to 34. It allows assessing the potential for growth in the birth rate in this real generation and predicting the required level of age-specific fertility rates in the next time period. The paper proposes a model for analysis of statistical data, which requires further verification on a larger array. The author also makes an attempt to model a new institution within the pronatalist policy — the institution of potential parents. As possible sanctions for violation of institutional norms by potential parents, it is proposed to use the mechanism of lost profits, that is, a reduction in additional payments and privileges from the state with an increase in the protogenetic interval.