Influence of Physically Constrained Initial Perturbations on the Predictability of Mei-Yu Heavy Precipitation

Based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach, the predictability of mei-yu heavy precipitation and its underlying physical processes is investigated. As an extension of our previous work, the practical predictability of heavy precipitation events is studied using more realistic initial perturbations than previously considered. The initial perturbation reflects certain physical connections among multiple variables including zonal and meridional winds, potential temperature (T), and water vapor mixing ratio (Q). Two types of initial perturbations for the CNOP are identified, with similar spatial distributions but opposite signs and resulting effects. The accumulated precipitation is strengthened with mostly positive perturbations in the T and Q components for the CNOP, and weakened by negative perturbations. Comparing downscaling (DOWN) perturbations and random perturbations (RPs) with the CNOP, it is found that the CNOP and DOWN perturbations exhibit particularly large- and mesoscale spatial structures, respectively, while the RPs yield a spatial distribution with mostly convective-scale features. Also, the CNOP results in the largest error growth and forecast uncertainty, especially for Q, followed by the DOWN perturbations, and then those in the RPs are the smallest. These results provide important implications for optimizing the initial perturbations of convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems, especially precipitation forecasts. Moreover, it is suggested that small-scale related variables, i.e., those associated with vertical motion and microphysical processes, are much less predictable than thermodynamic variables, and the errors grow through distinct physical processes for the three types of initial perturbations, i.e., with flow-dependent features.