城市化效应对京津冀地区地表气温变化的不确定性约束

IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Yuting He, Jinming Feng, Jun Wang, Lijuan Cao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

城市化对地表气温变化影响的定量评估为气候变化的正式检测和归因分析提供了重要基础。然而,在有记录的区域SAT趋势中,关于城市化相关变暖偏差的争论仍然存在,主要是由于农村站点的不同确定。本文通过三种方法估计了1980-2019年中国京津冀地区城市化对SAT变化的影响(即城乡站点之间的比较[算术站点平均值]、城市主导和农村主导的斑块[斑块加权平均值]以及现实的城市和农村地区[面积加权平均值)。最后一种方法在计算城市/农村和区域平均SAT趋势时明确考虑了城市和农村土地覆盖率。城市化引起的城市站(区)年平均SAT变化通过这三种方式分别估计为每十年0.159°C、0.195°C和0.138°C。用斑块加权法和面积加权法计算的城市化对区域平均年平均SAT的影响分别为每十年0.113°C和0.050°C,分别占区域变暖总量的33.8%和14.8%。通过考虑现实的城市/农村土地覆盖比例估计的城市化对观测到的SAT变化的影响远低于传统的站-未加权方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Constraining the uncertainty of urbanization effect on surface air temperature change over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China

Constraining the uncertainty of urbanization effect on surface air temperature change over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China

Quantitative assessment of urbanization effect on surface air temperature (SAT) change provides crucial basis for formal detection and attribution analyses of climate change. However, debates about urbanization-related warming bias in documented regional SAT trend still persist, mainly due to different determination of rural stations. Here the urbanization effect on SAT change over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China during 1980–2019 is estimated through three kinds of ways (i.e., comparisons between urban and rural stations [arithmetically station-averaged], urban-dominated and rural-dominated patches [patch-weighted mean], and realistic urban and rural areas [area-weighted mean]). The last method explicitly takes urban and rural land cover fractions into account when calculating urban/rural and regional mean SAT trends. Urbanization-induced warming in the annual mean SAT change of urban stations (areas) through the three ways are estimated as 0.159°C, 0.195°C, and 0.138°C per decade, respectively. And urbanization effect on regional averaged annual mean SAT calculated by patch-weighted and area-weighted methods are 0.113°C and 0.050°C per decade, respectively, which account for 33.8% and 14.8% of the total regional warming. The urbanization effect on observed SAT change estimated by considering realistic urban/rural land cover proportions is much lower than traditional station-unweighted way.

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来源期刊
Atmospheric Science Letters
Atmospheric Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
3.30%
发文量
73
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Atmospheric Science Letters (ASL) is a wholly Open Access electronic journal. Its aim is to provide a fully peer reviewed publication route for new shorter contributions in the field of atmospheric and closely related sciences. Through its ability to publish shorter contributions more rapidly than conventional journals, ASL offers a framework that promotes new understanding and creates scientific debate - providing a platform for discussing scientific issues and techniques. We encourage the presentation of multi-disciplinary work and contributions that utilise ideas and techniques from parallel areas. We particularly welcome contributions that maximise the visualisation capabilities offered by a purely on-line journal. ASL welcomes papers in the fields of: Dynamical meteorology; Ocean-atmosphere systems; Climate change, variability and impacts; New or improved observations from instrumentation; Hydrometeorology; Numerical weather prediction; Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting; Physical processes of the atmosphere; Land surface-atmosphere systems.
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