Effect of increased ambient temperature on seasonal generation number in Lucilia sericata (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

Abstract Global climate change and, specifically, rising temperatures, may increase the number of generations of necrophagous insects. The common green bottle fly Lucilia sericata (Meigen, 1826) (Diptera, Calliphoridae) ranks among the most important cosmopolitan necrophagous insects that utilize corpses and cause myiasis in farm animals and humans. Based on the data simulations, the use of accumulated degree-hours enables to calculate the number of generations of this forensically important species of blowfly with a greater accuracy than before, considering short-term increases of temperature at the boundary of the cold and warm seasons. The number of generations of L. sericata has increased from 7.65 to 8.46 in the Ukrainian steppe zone over the last 15 years, while the active developmental period of this species has increased by 25 days due to earlier start in spring. The average temperature increase of 1 °C increased the number of generations of L. sericata by 0.85. With a global climate change following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario (average temperature increase of 2.4 °C), adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, by 2100 the number of generations of L. sericata in a simulated ecosystem will increase by 2.0 to 9.0 generations per year.