延长封锁期对南非经济的可能影响：CGE分析

IF 1.6 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-08 DOI:10.1111/saje.12273

J. Van Heerden, E. Roos

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引用次数: 8

摘要

我们通过减少可用于生产的资本和劳动力数量，模拟了自2020年3月27日以来封锁规定对南非所有行业施加的行业级产能限制。我们发现，2020年实际国内生产总值比基线水平下降了10%，所有行业和宏观经济变量在2027年之前恢复到基线水平，目前和将继续受到影响的行业是酒店和旅游业以及与之相关的所有行业，如运输服务，以及饮料和烟草制造业一般也受到严重打击，因为他们被禁止让大批劳工进入他们的场所。哪一个模型是2027年的

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The Possible Effects of the Extended Lockdown Period on the South African Economy: A CGE Analysis

The economic effects of the lockdown period in South Africa will be devastating We simulated the industry level capacity constraints imposed by the lockdown regulations since 27 March 2020 on all industries in South Africa by reducing the amount of capital and labour available for production We found a decrease in real GDP to 10% below the baseline level in 2020, and recovery of all industries and macroeconomic variables towards the baseline by 2027 Industries that are suffering and would continue to suffer are the hospitality and tourism industry and all industries related to it, such as transport services, as well as beverages and tobacco Manufacturing in general is also hard hit because they were prohibited to let large groups of labourers enter their premises The model shows that most manufacturing will suffer throughout the forecast period, which was modelled up to 2027

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来源期刊

SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The South African Journal of Economics (SAJE) has a long and distinguished history, ranking amongst the oldest generalist journals in economics. In terms of editorial focus, the journal remains a generalist journal covering all fields in economics, but with a particular focus on developmental and African contexts. Toward this end, the editorial policy of the SAJE emphasizes scholarly work on developing countries, with African and Southern African development challenges receiving particular attention. While the SAJE remains a generalist journal, it encourages empirical work on developing and African economies. Importantly the focus is on both theoretical developments and methodological innovations that reflect developing country and African contexts and the policy challenges they pose. The objective of the journal is to be the premier vehicle for the publication of the most innovative work on development country and particularly African economic problems. It aims to be the target journal of choice not only for scholars located in Southern Africa, but of any scholar interested in the analysis of development challenges and their African applications. Clear theoretical foundations to work published should be a hallmark of the journal, and innovation in both theory and empirics appropriate to developing country and the African contexts are encouraged. In terms of submissions, the journal invites submissions primarily of original research articles, as well as survey articles and book reviews relevant to its context. In the case of both survey articles and book reviews, authors should note that a key minimum requirement is a critical reflection on the broader context of the existing literature.