Poor regeneration of pine after mountain pine beetle attack in colder boreal regions of Canada.

The recent expansion of mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae) from its native range in western North America into northern boreal pine forests in Alberta, Canada has resulted in conditions for tree regeneration that are dramatically different from those after wildfire, the predominant natural disturbance in these forests. We assessed natural regeneration post-MPB for northern boreal lodgepole pine sites in Alberta, Canada: via intensive surveys of small plots at 33 severely-attacked pine stands, and using data from 205 permanent sample plots representing various site types and levels of MPB-mortality. We used model selection to identify factors explaining regeneration. Overall, pine regeneration was very poor 6-9 years post-MPB; only 42% of the 33 intensively surveyed plots, and only 9% of the 205 permanent plots, had pine seedlings. This poor regeneration is attributed to high levels of cone serotiny in these populations, unsuitable regeneration microsites due to undisturbed litter or feathermoss layers, and competition from the residual canopy and understory vegetation. Other species (aspen, birch, poplar, black and white spruce) were found on most sites, either as post-attack regeneration or regeneration established in advance. Without intervention, many of these stands will likely transition away from pine, to broadleaf and other conifer species.