Socio-economic modeling of the effect of smokers’ transition to smokeless technologies

Research objective: Quantitative estimation of social-demographic and social-economic impact of the switch of traditional cigarettes smoking to modified risk tobacco products consumption, based on effect upon smoking-related mortality and diseases rates.Methods. Target group – consumers of smoking tobacco: conventional cigarettes (CC) and modified risk tobacco products (MRTP). Base of calculations – analysis of available time series for: CC and MRTP consumption, life expectancy and healthy life expectancy coefficients, statistics on smoking-related mortality and diseases rates, including data on key nosologies (malignant neoplasms of respiratory system, digestive organs, urinary tract; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; circulatory diseases; cerebrovascular diseases.Results. We implemented prognoses for all the above mentioned parameters to year 2035, calculated direct medical and indirect costs for demographic and economic loss with attention to budget impact analysis, developed five scenarios based on different CC and MRTP consumption.The model of switching from CC to MRTP consumption proves a significant decline of demographic and economic burden even with rather modest MRTP replacement for CC. With current practices of switching from CC to MRTP remaining, during 2021–2035 summary impact would result in 3.6 mln of years saved, 7.7 mln of healthy years saved, 120 thous. of mortal cases and 345 thous. diseases cases prevented. The economic burden would be 3.3 trillion rubles lower.Conclusion. Smoking cessation is the optimal method to reduce health risks, and state policy for stimulation of smoking quitting is necessary. Along with that, transition from CC to MRTP may be an alternative way to reduce health risks for those smokers with long smoking history and either psychological or physiological causes who cannot quit smoking.Even small in the terms of percent transition from CC to MRTP may result in significant decrease of demographic and economic burden on the national scale.