{"title":"是什么导致了中国西部山区高速公路上严重的多车撞车事故?","authors":"Y. Wang, L. Wang, L. Sun","doi":"10.17159/2309-8775/2022/v64no1a6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the occurrence and severity of collisions involving multiple vehicles on mountain expressways (MMEs) in Western China. A total of 1 521 crash samples occurring on one typical mountain expressway in Shaanxi, China, between 2012 and 2017, were analysed through a partially constrained generalised ordered logit to identify the significant risk factors contributing to the severity of such crashes. Elasticity analysis was performed to quantify the effects of each independent explanatory variable on the collision severity outcomes. Fourteen total explanatory variables were found to have a significant and pronounced influence on the likelihood of MME crashes. These include the type of collision, the at-fault driver's age, driving while fatigued, cell phone use while driving, alcohol-impaired driving, speeding, risky following and dangerous overtaking behaviour, sharp curves in the roadway and slippery pavement conditions, seasons, day of the week, time of day, and adverse weather (rain/snow/fog). The impacts of the variables on the collision severity were also explored. Taken together, the findings may serve as a useful guide for developing legislation and technical countermeasures to ensure traffic safety on mountain expressways in Western China.","PeriodicalId":54762,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"What leads to severe multi-vehicle crashes on mountainous expressways in Western China?\",\"authors\":\"Y. Wang, L. Wang, L. Sun\",\"doi\":\"10.17159/2309-8775/2022/v64no1a6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper investigates the occurrence and severity of collisions involving multiple vehicles on mountain expressways (MMEs) in Western China. A total of 1 521 crash samples occurring on one typical mountain expressway in Shaanxi, China, between 2012 and 2017, were analysed through a partially constrained generalised ordered logit to identify the significant risk factors contributing to the severity of such crashes. Elasticity analysis was performed to quantify the effects of each independent explanatory variable on the collision severity outcomes. Fourteen total explanatory variables were found to have a significant and pronounced influence on the likelihood of MME crashes. These include the type of collision, the at-fault driver's age, driving while fatigued, cell phone use while driving, alcohol-impaired driving, speeding, risky following and dangerous overtaking behaviour, sharp curves in the roadway and slippery pavement conditions, seasons, day of the week, time of day, and adverse weather (rain/snow/fog). The impacts of the variables on the collision severity were also explored. Taken together, the findings may serve as a useful guide for developing legislation and technical countermeasures to ensure traffic safety on mountain expressways in Western China.\",\"PeriodicalId\":54762,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-03-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.17159/2309-8775/2022/v64no1a6\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, CIVIL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.17159/2309-8775/2022/v64no1a6","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CIVIL","Score":null,"Total":0}
What leads to severe multi-vehicle crashes on mountainous expressways in Western China?
This paper investigates the occurrence and severity of collisions involving multiple vehicles on mountain expressways (MMEs) in Western China. A total of 1 521 crash samples occurring on one typical mountain expressway in Shaanxi, China, between 2012 and 2017, were analysed through a partially constrained generalised ordered logit to identify the significant risk factors contributing to the severity of such crashes. Elasticity analysis was performed to quantify the effects of each independent explanatory variable on the collision severity outcomes. Fourteen total explanatory variables were found to have a significant and pronounced influence on the likelihood of MME crashes. These include the type of collision, the at-fault driver's age, driving while fatigued, cell phone use while driving, alcohol-impaired driving, speeding, risky following and dangerous overtaking behaviour, sharp curves in the roadway and slippery pavement conditions, seasons, day of the week, time of day, and adverse weather (rain/snow/fog). The impacts of the variables on the collision severity were also explored. Taken together, the findings may serve as a useful guide for developing legislation and technical countermeasures to ensure traffic safety on mountain expressways in Western China.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering publishes peer reviewed papers on all aspects of Civil Engineering relevant to Africa. It is an open access, ISI accredited journal, providing authoritative information not only on current developments, but also – through its back issues – giving access to data on established practices and the construction of existing infrastructure. It is published quarterly and is controlled by a Journal Editorial Panel.
The forerunner of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering was established in 1903 as a learned society aiming to develop technology and to share knowledge for the development of the day. The minutes of the proceedings of the then Cape Society of Civil Engineers mainly contained technical papers presented at the Society''s meetings. Since then, and throughout its long history, during which time it has undergone several name changes, the organisation has continued to publish technical papers in its monthly publication (magazine), until 1993 when it created a separate journal for the publication of technical papers.