A Criminological Analysis of the Correlation Between the Dynamics of the Afghan Opium Expansion and the Heroin Abuse Situation in Russia

The purpose of the work is to establish criminologically significant information about the relationship between the dynamics of opium expansion of Afghan origin and the heroin drug situation in Russia. The methodological basis is the method of SWOT analysis and four-element strategic PEST analysis (Policy — policy, Economy — economy, Society — society, Technology — technology), implemented to identify and study the political, economic, socio-cultural and technological aspects of the development of the object under study. Consideration of the correlation relationship led to the conclusion that active international, cross-border and interagency cooperation reduces the “heroin pressure” on the Russian Federation along the «northern route» of drug trafficking. This interaction serves as a point-by-point combination of political efforts to normalize the opium drug situation in the Central Asian region. In turn, the growing popularity of synthetic drugs reduces the demand for plant-based opium drugs. The consequences of the transformation of drug trafficking routing are noted. It was found that the increased risks of detaining drug traffickers and the overall unprofitability of the contact method of distributing heroin led to the widespread use of international mail channels, mobile communications and electronic communications. The practical significance of structuring the correlation under consideration through four aspects makes it possible to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the domestic mechanism for combating illicit trafficking in opium drugs.