市场对政治风险的反应：来自2018年巴西总统选举的证据

Q3 Business, Management and Accounting

Latin American Business Review Pub Date : 2021-07-02 DOI:10.1080/10978526.2021.1942025

Gustavo Pereira, Jéfferson A. Colombo, O. Figueiredo

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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要2018年巴西总统选举，加上前所未有的政治不稳定，两位经济议程对立的候选人之间势均力敌。利用这一前所未有的情景，本文分析了政治事件在塑造金融资产回报方面的作用。使用倾向得分匹配技术的回归表明，与其他相同的公司相比，与政府有关联的公司在相关事件周围的累积异常回报为正。这些结果强化了政治风险在新兴经济体金融市场中的作用，并使经济主体能够概述预测政治动荡时期股票回报行为的策略。

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Market Reaction to Political Risk: Evidence From the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election

Abstract The 2018 Brazilian presidential elections coupled unprecedented political instability with a close race between two candidates with antagonistic economic agendas. Using this unparalleled scenario, this paper analyzes the role of political events in shaping the returns on financial assets. The regressions using the Propensity Score Matching technique suggest that companies linked to the government had positive cumulative abnormal returns around relevant events compared with otherwise identical firms. These results reinforce the role of political risk on financial markets in emerging economies and allow economic agents to outline strategies to predict stock return behavior during periods of political turmoil.

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来源期刊

Latin American Business Review Business, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management

CiteScore

2.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Latin American Business Review is a quarterly, refereed journal which facilitates the exchange of information and new ideas between academics, business practitioners, public policymakers, and those in the international development community. Special features of the journal will keep you current on various teaching, research, and information sources. These activities all focus on the business and economic environment of the diverse and dynamic countries of the Americas.