巴西大豆中厚叶Phakospora pachyrhizi流行病早期阶段的建模

IF 3.5 Q1 AGRONOMY
B. Kassie, D. Onstad, L. Koga, Tim Hart, R. Clark, G. W. van der Heijden
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引用次数: 0

摘要

亚洲大豆锈病是由富营养担子菌Phakospora pachyrhizi引起的一种叶面病,通常会对大豆作物造成相当大的损害。我们工作的目的是创建一个能够可靠地代表巴西商业大豆田ASR流行病的机制模型。该模型最重要的输入是天气数据(观测和预测)和疾病的初始观测(或脲孢子虫到达)。我们的重点是移民到大豆田后的前两三个感染周期。该模型包括潜伏性、感染性和衰老性病变、疾病严重程度、尿素孢子和大豆叶面积的状态变量。建模的过程包括通过潜伏期和感染期的成熟、发芽、孢子形成以及影响冠层中尿素孢子的过程。模型结果与巴西2019/2020年生长季节四个地点的试验现场观测结果进行了对比测试。这些预测通常与现场试验中疾病进展的每日动态相匹配。预测很好地再现了观察到的严重性,R2值为0.84。这种高度相关性表明,我们的模型足够准确,可以用作预测尿素孢子入侵大豆田后最初几个周期ASR流行病动态的工具。敏感性分析表明,该模型对孢子初始到达的时间和持续时间敏感。这表明孢子捕获器或其他观测不仅应测量到达的第一天,还应测量随后的几天。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling the early phases of epidemics by Phakospora pachyrhizi in Brazilian soybean
Asian soybean rust, caused by the biotrophic basidiomycete Phakospora pachyrhizi, is a foliar disease that often causes considerable damage to soybean crops. The purpose of our work was to create a mechanistic model that can reliably represent epidemics of ASR in commercial soybean fields in Brazil. The most important inputs for the model are weather data (observations and forecast) and the initial observation of disease (or uredospore arrival). Our focus is on the first two or three cycles of infection after immigration into a soybean field. The model includes state variables for latent, infectious and senesced lesions, disease severity, uredospores, and soybean leaf area. Processes modeled include maturation through the latent and infectious periods, germination, sporulation, and processes affecting uredospores in the canopy. The model results were tested against field observations from trials at four locations in Brazil for the 2019/2020 growing season. The predictions generally matched the daily dynamics of disease progress in the field trials. The predictions reproduced the observed severity well with R2 value of 0.84. This high correlation indicates that our model is accurate enough to be used as a tool to predict the dynamics of ASR epidemics during the first few cycles after uredospore invasion into a soybean field. A sensitivity analysis was performed that showed that the model is sensitive to time and duration of the initial spore arrival. This indicates that spore traps or other observations should measure not only the first day of arrival but also subsequent days.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Agronomy
Frontiers in Agronomy Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
123
审稿时长
13 weeks
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