孟加拉国正在走向债务压力？近期外部资金流动背景下的债务可持续性探讨

IF 0.3 Q4 ECONOMICS

South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance Pub Date : 2018-09-18 DOI:10.1177/2277978718795755

D. Bhattacharya, Z. Ashraf

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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文基于2017财年至2026财年的模拟演习，考察了孟加拉国在未来替代情景下公共债务的可持续性。它采用了稳定债务的初级平衡方法（DPSBA）和国际货币基金组织/世界银行债务可持续性框架（DSF）。前者的调查结果表明，只要孟加拉国的经济增长率保持高于应付债务的实际利率，它就能够偿还不断增加的公共债务。根据DSF测试的变量，公共债务似乎也是可持续的。然而，调查结果表明，孟加拉国一直并将继续将其收入中越来越多的份额用于偿还外债，这与对增长型部门的投资形成了权衡。JEL分类：H63、H68、H69、H81、G28

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Is Bangladesh Rolling towards Debt Stress? An Exploration of Debt Sustainability in the Context of Recent External Financial Flows

This article examines the sustainability of public debt in Bangladesh under alternative future scenarios based on simulation exercises for the period of FY2017 to FY2026. It adopts the debt-stabilizing primary balance approach (DPSBA) and International Monetary Fund/World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF). The findings of the former indicate that Bangladesh will be able to service its increasing public debt as long as its economic growth rate remains higher than the real interest rate payable on debt. Public debt also appears to be sustainable according to variables tested under the DSF. However, findings indicate that Bangladesh has been and would continue allocating an increasing share of its revenue to external debt repayment, creating a trade-off with investment in growth-oriented sectors. JEL Classification: H63, H68, H69, H81, G28

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来源期刊

South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

11.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The purpose of the Journal is to publish (in English language) peer-reviewed articles, reviews and scholarly comments on issues relating to contemporary global macroeconomics and public finance by which is understood: The Journal is for all professionals concerned with contemporary Macroeconomics and Public Finance and is a forum for all views on related subjects. The Editorial Board welcomes articles of current interest on research and application on the areas mentioned above. The Journal will be international in the sense that it seeks research papers from authors with an international reputation and articles that are of interest to an international audience. In pursuit of the above, the journal shall: a. draw on and include high quality work from the international community of scholars including those in the major countries of Asia, Europe, Asia Pacific, the United States, other parts of the Americas and elsewhere with due representation for considerations of the readership. The Journal shall include work representing the major areas of interest in contemporary research on Macroeconomics and Public Finance and on a wide range of issues covering macro- economics, tax and fiscal issues, banking and finance, international trade, labour economics, computational and mathematical methods, etc. The Journal would particularly engage papers on pure and applied economic theory and econometric methods. b. avoid bias in favour of the interests of particular schools or directions of research or particular political or narrow disciplinary objectives to the exclusion of others. c. ensure that articles are written in a terminology and style which makes them intelligible, not merely within the context of a particular discipline or abstract mode, but across the domain of relevant disciplines.