Knowing the Clouds through the Land: Perceptions of Changes in Climate through Agricultural Practices in Two Nahua Indigenous Communities

Abstract. Changes in climate are important for agriculture and the livelihoods it sustains. To improve the understanding of how climate vulnerability is expressed in agricultural environments, it is necessary to address how people perceive and interact with their surroundings. This study analyzes farmers' perceptions of a set of climate change indicators and their influence on agricultural practices in two Indigenous communities located at different altitudes in Mexico. Farmers' observations were explored using semi-structured interviews and contextualized within the local instrumental climate record. The influence of these farmers' perceptions on their agricultural practices was further analyzed using a logistic regression model. Changes in rain intensity and seasonality, as well as in wind intensity, were mentioned most frequently. Farmers' experiences suggest a reduction in rain and wind intensity and shorter rainy seasons. Memories of past anomalous years coincide with precipitation anomalies found in the instrumental records. However, temperature changes and biotic indicators were seldom perceived. Our results show that the perception of these indicators is mediated by agricultural practices, and we found evidence indicating that these perceptions during the first stage of the seasonal calendar induce readjustments in sowing dates. Moreover, farmers resort to out-migration, integration of cash crops, and use of commercial fertilizers to cope with or reduce crop loss due to climate impacts.