强风情况下降低野火点火风险的经验证据

IF 3 3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY
Assaf Shmuel, E. Heifetz
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引用次数: 0

摘要

任何尝试过在大风天点燃营火的人都能体会到这有多难。然而,尽管现实生活经验和实验室实验已经证明,超过一定的风阈值后,火灾着火风险会显著降低,但目前的火灾天气指数(fwi)并没有考虑到这一影响,并假设风速与着火风险之间存在单调关系。在本文中,我们进行了一个全局分析,经验量化了点火概率作为风速的函数。使用传统方法(逻辑回归和广义加性模型)和机器学习技术,我们发现超过大约3-4米/秒的阈值,着火风险大大降低。当考虑到温度和相对湿度等其他因素时,这种效应仍然成立。我们建议更新wi来解决这个问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Empirical Evidence of Reduced Wildfire Ignition Risk in the Presence of Strong Winds
Anyone who has tried lighting a campfire on a windy day can appreciate how difficult it could be. However, despite real-life experience and despite laboratory experiments which have demonstrated that fire ignition risk dramatically decreases beyond a certain wind threshold, current fire weather indices (FWIs) do not take this effect into account and assume a monotonic relation between wind velocity and ignition risk. In this paper, we perform a global analysis which empirically quantifies the probability of ignition as a function of wind velocity. Using both traditional methods (a logistic regression and a generalized additive model) and machine learning techniques, we find that beyond a threshold of approximately 3–4 m/s, the ignition risk substantially decreases. The effect holds when accounting for additional factors such as temperature and relative humidity. We recommend updating FWIs to account for this issue.
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来源期刊
Fire-Switzerland
Fire-Switzerland Multiple-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
15.60%
发文量
182
审稿时长
11 weeks
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