Understanding Past Climate-Related Migration for Our Warming World

As anthropogenic climate warming and associated climate extremes increase, insights from a century of effort in the US Southwest to understand climate-related migration should be shared to assist with modern drought planning efforts. Toward this end, we make two parallel contributions. First, we contribute a surprising finding from our work in the Mimbres area of the AD 1100s and the central Arizona area during the AD 1200–1450 period. We find people with access to the most water in this arid landscape were also the most likely to migrate when confronted with dry conditions. Second, we use these results to demonstrate how the past can be helpful to modern drought planners and others preparing for a warming climate. Millions of smallholder farmers today practice agricultural strategies similar to those in the past. We aim to stimulate archaeological efforts to address the challenges of a warming world.