Performance-based selection of pathways for enhancing built infrastructure resilience

ABSTRACT Built infrastructure systems must be resilient to disasters. After a disaster, its functionality has to evolve with significant uncertainties to restore pre-event condition. Innovative infrastructure design and management pathways can aid in sequencing possible pre- and post-disaster actions, incorporating flexibility into planning and decision-making to enhance resilience. Adoption of disaster risk reduction policies can benefit from accurate, comprehensive, and systematic probabilistic risk and resilience assessments. Such assessments, though not widely prevalent, help to understand the root causes of vulnerabilities and quantify their uncertainties. Therefore, they are prerequisites to identify and implement adaptation pathways for enhancing infrastructure resilience. To support identification and implementation of pathways approach, this study presents seismic resilience assessment incorporating functionality loss and pathways for subsequent recovery. An archetypical reinforced-concrete building, representing typical behavior of the building group used for critical functions, is considered under pre- and post-disaster preparedness, planning, and risk reduction options to develop deeper understanding of risks and selection of pathways. Resilience assessments are conducted based on performance-based earthquake engineering approach and considering uncertainties through Monte Carlo simulations. Both engineering and management interventions, such as improving non-structural component performance, eliminating post-disaster impedances, reducing repair delays, other management activities, and their combinations, are simulated under a common framework. The study quantifies how these measures can reduce losses, improve response, and enhance infrastructure resilience. Options for technical and management decision-making by various stakeholders to enhance resilience are also presented. The study advocates embracing the resiliency mindset and illustrates the benefits of multiple stakeholders for risk-informed decision-making.