暴露前和暴露后预防下HIV/AIDS的数学模型

Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Erick Manuel Delgado Moya, Diego Samuel Rodrigues, A. Piétrus, Aymee Marrero Severo
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引用次数: 4

摘要

艾滋病毒/艾滋病对社会、经济和健康有着强烈的影响。病例的早期诊断、坚持治疗和预防是控制人群流行病的重要因素。在本文中,我们提出了一个新的数学模型来研究艾滋病病毒/艾滋病的传播。我们的模型对男性和女性进行了分层,以解释同性恋和异性恋关系的主要性传播形式,以及艾滋病毒和艾滋病阶段的传染性。此外,在模型的构建中,我们考虑了暴露前预防(PrEP)和暴露后预防(PEP)的影响,以研究基于病毒载量不可检测性的这些实施、诊断和治疗有效性的影响。我们按亚群(男性和女性)和一般人群研究基本繁殖数量。通过亚群研究,我们可以研究与对病毒传播有强烈影响的男性发生性关系的男性。此外,我们还研究了无感染平衡点,因为它们与基本繁殖数的关系,并通过亚群和总体证明了全局稳定性。为了探索我们的模型,我们对一个使用文献和假设数据设计的场景进行了计算模拟,研究了与PrEP、PEP和不可检测性的使用相关的参数对基本繁殖数的影响,通过单独和联合改变它们。我们得出的结论是,在女性中,基本繁殖数总是低于1,而在男性中,与HIV男性病毒载量不可检测性相关的参数对动态有很大影响。我们还讨论了PrEP、PEP和艾滋病毒和艾滋病的不可检测性对隔间的影响,考虑到不同的场景,共同、独立和按性别改变参数,这表明很难减少艾滋病妇女的感染。在减少艾滋病毒和艾滋病病例方面取得最佳结果的情况是,与艾滋病毒和艾滋病男性和女性的不可检测性相关的参数采用世界卫生组织(世界卫生组织)战略中提出的90-90-90。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Mathematical Model for HIV/AIDS Under Pre-Exposure and Post-Exposure Prophylaxis
HIV/AIDS has a strong impact on society, the economy, and health. Early diagnosis of cases, adherence to treatment, and prevention are important factors in controlling the epidemic in the population. In this paper, we present a new mathematical model for the study of HIV/AIDS transmission. Our model is stratified in men and women, to account for the main forms of sexual transmission homosexual and heterosexual relationships, and infectiousness in the HIV and AIDS stages. In addition, in the construction of the model, we take into account the influence of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) and Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (PEP) to study the impact of these implementations, diagnosis, and effectiveness of treatment based on viral load undetectability. We study the basic reproduction number by subpopulation (men and women) and general. Working by subpopulations allows us to study men who have sex with men who have a strong impact on virus transmission. Also, we study the infection-free equilibrium points due to their relationship with the basic reproduction number and demonstrate the global stability by subpopulation and general. To explore our model, we performed computational simulations on a scenario designed with data from the literature and assumed, studying the influence of the parameters associated with the use of PrEP, PEP, and undetectability on the basic reproduction number by varying them individually and jointly. We concluded that in women the basic reproduction number is always lower than unity and that in men the parameter associated with the undetectability of the viral load in HIV men has a strong influence on the dynamics. We also address the impact of PrEP, PEP, and undetectability in HIV and AIDS on the compartments, considering different scenarios varying the parameters jointly and independently and by sex which show difficulty in reducing women with AIDS. The scenario that showed the best results in the reduction of the number of HIV and AIDS cases was when the parameters associated with undetectability in HIV and AIDS men and women take the 90-90-90 that is proposed in the World Health Organization (WHO) strategy.
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来源期刊
Biomath
Biomath Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
2.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
6
审稿时长
20 weeks
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