公私合作（PPP）公路项目中最低交通保障的最优阈值建模

IF 1 4区经济学 Q4 BUSINESS

Engineering Economist Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI:10.1080/0013791X.2021.2015498

Zhenyao Wu, S. Hanaoka, B. Shuai

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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要考虑到贷款人的角度和参与者的风险承受能力，提出了交通担保的最优上下限模型，以优化政府和特许公司之间的风险分配。在本研究中，贷款人提供贷款的条件是项目的违约概率不超过贷款人可接受的最大违约概率。该模型使用风险权重来反映政府和特许公司的风险承受能力，并采用风险基尼系数来描述风险分配的合理性。该模型在公路项目中的应用表明，具有最佳阈值的交通保障有效地平衡了政府和特许公司的项目风险。

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Modeling optimal thresholds for minimum traffic guarantee in public–private partnership (PPP) highway projects

Abstract Optimal upper and lower thresholds model for traffic guarantee are proposed to optimize the risk allocation between a government and a concessionaire considering the perspective of lenders and the risk tolerances of the participants. In this study, the condition for the lender to provide the loan is that the default probability of the project does not exceed the acceptable maximum default probability of the lender. The proposed model uses risk weights to reflect the risk tolerances of government and the concessionaire and adopts a Gini coefficient for risk to describe the rationality of risk allocation. The application of the model to a highway project shows that a traffic guarantee with optimal thresholds effectively balances the project risks for both the government and concessionaire.

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来源期刊

Engineering Economist ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL-OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The Engineering Economist is a refereed journal published jointly by the Engineering Economy Division of the American Society of Engineering Education (ASEE) and the Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers (IISE). The journal publishes articles, case studies, surveys, and book and software reviews that represent original research, current practice, and teaching involving problems of capital investment. The journal seeks submissions in a number of areas, including, but not limited to: capital investment analysis, financial risk management, cost estimation and accounting, cost of capital, design economics, economic decision analysis, engineering economy education, research and development, and the analysis of public policy when it is relevant to the economic investment decisions made by engineers and technology managers.