书评

IF 0.6 4区 管理学 Q1 HISTORY
A. Mitchell
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引用次数: 0

摘要

大战略就像两面神一样,有两面——一面面向未来,一面面向过去。《大战略》建立在这样一个假设之上,即人们可以利用历史来阐明当前乃至不久的将来的危险和弱点。大战略虽然缺乏一个总体的定义或一系列的规则,但在主题上有一个共同点,即试图通过从历史中汲取智慧来对现在有用。大战略的一面是面向未来,将过去的复杂性简化为适用的经验教训。正如修昔底德所写,人类的状况是这样的,对过去事件的清晰而准确的理解是有益的。发生过的事还会再发生。在当代的说法中,大战略的这一方面是政策制定的一部分,大战略的一个潜在定义是在一个制度框架(如政府)内对目的和手段进行强烈、平衡的考虑。在这里,目标是理解复杂性,并使领导者能够做出明智和快速的决策。了解所有的事实或考虑所有可能的选择是不可能的。要了解哪些政策和选择在过去是有效的,哪些是无效的,就需要具备收集相关证据的技能,以便制定有效的政策——如今这通常是政治学家所承担的任务。然而,人类太容易找到证据来支持他们已经相信的事情——根据修昔底德的说法,这是人性的另一个方面。寻求利用过去的危险在于,在降低复杂性的过程中,大战略家只会确认当前的观点,而不会挑战它们。因此,大战略的另一面看向过去,以保持准确性和突出复杂性。书评
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Book Reviews
Two Approaches to Grand Strategy and the Uses of History Like Janus, grand strategy has two faces—one facing the future and the other the past. Grand Strategy builds on the assumption that men can use history to illuminate the dangers and foibles of the present and perhaps the near future. Grand strategy, although lacking an overarching definition or a set series of rules, has thematically in common the attempt to be useful to the present by deriving wisdom from history. One face of grand strategy, looking to the future, reduces the past’s complexity into applicable lessons. As Thucydides wrote, the human condition is such that a clear and precise understanding of past events is beneficial. What has happened will happen again. In contemporary parlance, this aspect of grand strategy is a part of policy making, and one potential definition of grand strategy is that type of intense, balanced consideration of ends and means occurring within an institutional framework, such as a government. Here, the goal is to make sense of complexity and enable leaders to make informed and rapid decisions. It is not possible to know all the facts or consider all potential choices. Understanding which policies and choices have worked and not worked in the past requires the skill to assemble the relevant evidence in order to make efficient policy—today an endeavor often assumed by the political scientist. However, humans all too easily find evidence to support the things they already believe—another aspect of human nature according to Thucydides. The danger of seeking to make the past useful is that in reducing complexity, the grand strategist will only confirm current opinions and never challenge them. Therefore, the other face of grand strategy looks to the past, in order to maintain accuracy and highlight complexity. Book Reviews
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
16.70%
发文量
18
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