太空时代:过去、现在和可能的未来

IF 0.9 Q3 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE
José Bezerra Pessoa Filho
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引用次数: 2

摘要

自从加加林于1961年4月12日飞行以来,使人类太空飞行成为常规,使智人成为多行星物种的梦想似乎越来越接近现实。尽管如此,在过去的60年里,平均每年只有不到10次人类飞行。另一方面,无人航天器改变了人类看待自己和周围宇宙的方式。它们探索了太阳系中的所有行星,以及彗星、小行星和太阳。目前,火星表面有四艘无人航天器,轨道上有八颗卫星。自1957年发射人造卫星以来,已有11000多颗卫星被送入地球轨道。如今,如果没有太空时代产生的天基基础设施提供的服务,地球上的生命是不可能想象的。它们改变了人类文明的生活方式,成为了一种商品,就像饮用水和电力一样。所谓的卫星产业每年产生约3000亿美元的收入,主要与卫星服务和地面设备的销售有关。指数级增长和颠覆的时代已经通过新太空一代的思想、举措和勇气进入了地球轨道,埃隆·马斯克就是这一代的代表。预计未来10年将发射2万5千颗卫星,以提供全球宽带互联网接入等应用。然而,科学界和军方已经表达了他们对空间碎片及其空间可持续性的关切。对于科学界来说,期待已久的詹姆斯·韦伯太空望远镜(JWST)的发射有望成为2021年的主要事件。在地球太空船面临如此多挑战的时代,埃隆·马斯克和杰夫·贝佐斯的思想和行动让地球上的居民成为多行星物种的梦想得到了复兴。有些人打算通过公私伙伴关系,在2045年前建立一个1000人的太空工作和生活社区。各国之间的合作在太空中很常见,但与在月球、火星和太阳系其他地方进行殖民所需的努力相比,它们仍然很害羞。随着21世纪的发展,地球号太空船面临着有史以来最大的挑战。太空资产提供了监测地球健康所需的所有工具,但如果人类物种打算作为唯一确定的智能文明生存,它就必须以真正合作的方式团结思考和行动。否则,迄今为止进行的文明和技术努力可能会被证明是徒劳的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Space Age: Past, Present and Possible Futures
Since Gagarin’s flight on April 12th, 1961, the dream of making human space flight routine and making Homo sapiens a multiplanetary species seemed to have become closer to reality. Nonetheless, on average less than 10 human flights a year have happened along the past 60 years. Unmanned spacecrafts, on the other hand, have changed the way the human race sees itself and the universe it is surrounded by. They have explored all planets in the solar system, as well as comets, asteroids and the Sun. Presently, there are four unmanned spacecrafts on Mars’ surface and eight satellites in its orbit. Since the launching of Sputnik in 1957, more than 11,000 satellites have been sent into Earth’s orbit. Nowadays, it is impossible to imagine life on Earth without the services provided by the space-based infrastructure resulting from the Space Age. They have changed the modus vivendi of the human civilization and become a commodity, like potable water and electricity. The so-called satellite industry generates around US$ 300 billion a year, mostly related to the sale of satellite services and ground equipment. The era of exponential growth and disruption has reached Earth’s orbit, and beyond, through the minds, initiatives and boldness of the NewSpace generation, from which Elon Musk is its exponent. Twenty-five thousand satellites are expected to be launched in the next 10 years to provide, among other applications, worldwide broadband internet access. The scientific community and the military, however, have already expressed their concerns regarding space debris and, as a consequence, space sustainability. For the scientific community, the long-waited launch of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) promises to be the 2021 main event. In a time in which Spaceship Earth faces so many challenges, the dream of making its dwellers a multiplanetary species got a revival trough the minds and actions of Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. There are those who, through public-private partnerships, intend to establish a 1,000 people community working and living in space by 2045. Cooperation among nations has been usual in space, but they are still shy when compared to the efforts required to colonize the Moon, Mars and other places in the solar system. As the 21st century advances, Spaceship Earth faces its greatest challenge ever. Space-based assets provide all the tools required to monitor Earth’s health, but if the human species intends to survive as the only identified intelligent civilization, it will have to think and act united in a truly cooperative way. Otherwise, the civilizational and technological effort hitherto undertaken may prove to be useless.
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