混合体制的持久性如何?津巴布韦作为一个混合政权的案例

Politeia Pub Date : 2021-12-15 DOI:10.25159/2663-6689/9716
Itai Makone, D. Lambrechts
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引用次数: 0

摘要

总的来说,混合政权的持久性是有争议的,因为民主和独裁政权机构在体制中共存,相互脱节。人们也不可避免地期待着一个混合制度的改变。这项研究以1990年至2018年间的津巴布韦为例,认为混合政权可以具有持久的持久性。混合政体的概念框架是通过确定四个混合性指标来制定的:选举、公民自由、监护干预和政治精英凝聚力。该框架随后适用于津巴布韦。这个国家表现出五种不同的混杂性,它们是:自由主义;竞争性不自由;竞争的不自由的军事制度,按混合制度框架中确定的最可观察指标分组。因此,发现杂交性是流动的,并且在28年的时间内在状态内变化。如图所示,津巴布韦确定的不同时间框架或多或少经历了民主统治或威权主义的特征,但从未波及到新政权的代表性。因此,由于混合制度的可调节和可变性质,向不同系统的转变变得不那么可预测。该研究进一步确定了使混合制度持久的五个因素:长期执政的政府;政治精英凝聚力高;领导层更替率低;强有力的政治家;以及竞争对手。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How Durable are Hybrid Regimes? The Case of Zimbabwe as a Hybrid Regime
In general, the durability of the hybrid regime is debated due to the coexistence of democratic and authoritarian regime institutions in the system, functioning in disconnect with each other. There is also the inevitable expectation of a hybrid regime to change. This study argues that a hybrid regime can have lasting durability, using the case of Zimbabwe between 1990 and 2018. A hybrid regime conceptual framework is developed by identifying four indicators of hybridity: elections, civil liberties, tutelary interference, and political elite cohesion. The framework is then applied to Zimbabwe. The country shows five diverse variations of hybridity, which are: liberal; competitive illiberal; competitive; illiberal; and military regimes, grouped by the most observable indicators identified in the hybrid regime framework. Thus, hybridity is found to be fluid and varies within the state over a period of 28 years. As is indicated, different timeframes identified in Zimbabwe experienced more, or less, characteristics of democratic rule or authoritarianism, but never a spill-over to new regime representation. Consequently, due to the adjustable and changeable nature of the hybrid regime, transformation into a different system becomes less predictable. The study further identifies five factors that enable the durability of the hybrid regime: lengthy incumbent government; high political elite cohesion; low leadership turnover; a strong statesman; and competitive opposition.
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