Sustainability of the Pension System in the Republic of Macedonia: Challenges and Solutions

The aim of the study is to create a forecasting model that will foresee the trend of the situation of the Pension, Insurance and Disability Fund of the Republic of Macedonia. The methodology applied to evaluate the sustainability of pension system, and controlling the risk to pension funds, is forecast of all individual regressors through first order autoregressive model. This method will enable the assessment of the future uncertainty of the contributions and expenditures of pension insurance. The forecasted data show that in 2056, if no other reforms are undertaken, the increase in the percentage points of the number of employers is less than the increase in the number of pensioners for 3.9 percentage points. As per the natality and mortality, in the Republic of Macedonia natality will be only one third of its statistics in 2016, whereas mortality will double its value by 2056.