The Impact of Crisis Events in Ukraine on the Export of Agricultural Products to EU Countries and the World

Abstract The article examines the impact of crisis events in Ukraine on the export of agricultural products to EU countries and the world. The purpose of the research was the development, substantiation, and optimization of theoretical and methodological provisions as well as practical recommendations for estimating main indicators to forecast the future of the Ukrainian economy, in particular, determining through the use of economic and mathematical modeling, the influence of the level of the national trade turnover on the level of GDP and the correlation between the level of exports and the level of Ukraine’s GDP. After almost thirty years of development, the Ukrainian economy faced a serious challenge and an unprecedented shock in its history due to hostilities and the escalation of the conflict in the East of the country. In particular, it was found that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the sharp rise in commodity prices have created a threat to the food security around the world. In turn, before the full-scale war, one of the largest shares of Ukraine’s export and import partnership agreements was occupied by EU countries. The conducted research using economic and mathematical modeling showed a direct correlation between commodity circulation of Ukraine and the GDP of the country. Thus, main results witness the Ukraine‘s necessity to increase the level of exports and increase its trade turnover. The reconstruction of production facilities must be in accordance with European and global production norms, in compliance with environmental and other normative standards, so that Ukrainian products can compete on European and global markets.